[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc extending from 01N to 13N with
axis along 25W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-08N between 20W-30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 03N to 16N
with axis along 40W/41W, moving westward around 10 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is from 05N-15N between 36W-47W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis along 54W,
moving westward around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
from 04N-13N between 47W-57W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 18N
with axis along 79W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 16N between 70W-90W

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near
11N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 08N40W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from near 08N43W to 05N53W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 30W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high centered over the W Atlantic near 27N75W extends
a ridge axis towards SE Louisiana. Scattered showers are along
the coast of S Louisiana and over the E Gulf of Mexico N of 23N.

High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf into
late week. This will bring moderate to fresh SE winds over the
western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin, and the next one approaching the Lesser
Antilles.

A moderate high pressure ridge extends west-northwest to east-
southeast just north of the Bahamas. The resulting pressure
gradient is causing generally moderate to fresh E trades, except
for strong E trades just north of Colombia. Most of the Caribbean
is covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/African Dust event,
though visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from the
convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave
and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, scattered showers are
observed over Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward
Islands.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean into late week. Pulses of fresh to locally strong
winds are also possible in the Gulf of Honduras over the next
few nights. A tropical wave will the Leeward and Windward
Islands Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

A 1018 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas near 27N75W.
Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. and the W Atlantic
W of 65W. A 1031 mb high is centered SW of the Azores near
36N35W. Some of the big Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak
from earlier days still remain north of 25N west of 70W, though
this is weakening. A new Saharan Air Layer/African dust region
extends from around 07N-25N between West African and 54W behind
a tropical wave.

High pressure will dominate the area, bringing gentle to
moderate winds into mid-week. A tropical wave will approach
Atlantic waters north of the Lesser Antilles Tue.

$$
Formosa
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