[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2314 UTC Sun Jun 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc extending from 01N to 13N with
axis near 24W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection and isolated tstms are from 04N to 08N between 19W and
25W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 03N to 16N
with axis near 39W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 04N-12N between 40W-48W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 53W,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 11N between 48W and 52W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 18N
with axis near 78W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring S of 13N E of the wave axis to
73W and S of 16N W of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near
14N17W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 09N35W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from near 07N44W to 06N49W.
For information about convection see the tropical waves section
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Stable conditions prevail across most portions of the Gulf this
evening, being supported by surface ridging and a middle level
high. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure
along Mexico is enhancing the return flow in the western half of
the basin to moderate to fresh while light to gentle variable
winds dominate the eastern half of the basin. Only isolated
showers are noted in enhanced infrared imagery over the SE
portion of the Gulf. This activity is being supported by shallow
moisture and diffluent flow aloft.

High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf into
late week. This will bring moderate to fresh SE winds over the
western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin, and the next one approaching the Lesser
Antilles.

A moderate high pressure ridge extends west-northwest to east-
southeast just north of the Bahamas. The resulting pressure
gradient is causing generally moderate to fresh E trades, except
for strong E trades just north of Colombia. Most of the Caribbean
is covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/African Dust event,
though visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from some
convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave
and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, scattered showers are
observed over Vieques and Culebra as well as the Virgin Islands.

With high pressure remaining centered north of the area, fresh
to strong trades will prevail across the south-central Caribbean
into late week. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds are also
possible in the Gulf of Honduras over the next few nights. A
tropical wave may approach Atlantic waters east of the Leeward
Islands by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

The 1031 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 36N34W with a
ridge extending to just north of the Bahamas. NE to E trades
south of the ridge are generally gentle to moderate. Some of the
big Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak from earlier days
still remain north of 25N west of 70W, though this is weakening
today. A new Saharan Air Layer/African dust region extends from
around 07N-25N between West African and the Caribbean. However,
this is not nearly as dense as the one from a few days ago.

High pressure will dominate the area, bringing gentle to
moderate winds into mid-week. By mid-week, a tropical wave may
approach Atlantic waters north and east of the Lesser Antilles.

$$
Ramos
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