[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The GFS model for 500 mb and for
700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate and
isolated to widely scattered strong from 10N to 14N between 80W
and the 84W/85W tropical wave. The monsoon trough is along
08N74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong in clusters covers the coastal
waters and inland areas of Colombia, NW Venezuela near Lake
Maracaibo, and Panama, and parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean
waters from 05N to 11N between Lake Maracaibo and 80W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The GFS model for 500
mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong from
10N to 14N between 80W and the 84W/85W tropical wave. The
monsoon trough is along 08N74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa
Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters
covers the coastal waters and inland areas of Colombia, NW
Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, and Panama, and parts of the
eastern Pacific Ocean waters from 05N to 11N between Lake
Maracaibo and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau, just to the south of Senegal, near 12N16W, to
10N24W, and 08N35W. The ITCZ is along 07N38W, to 07N43W, 08N49W,
and 08N51W 07N58W. Precipitation: Scattered strong is from 06N
to Africa between 12W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 150 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ between 20W and 44W, and within 90 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 55W and 57W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 10N to 11N between 57W and 63W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from a southern Mexico anticyclonic
circulation center, to Florida.

A surface trough extends from the Florida west coast near
Tampa/St. Petersburg, to 26N84W, and 24N85W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is in the Straits of Florida between the
Bahamas and the surface trough.

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend, into the west
central Gulf of Mexico, to the 23N98W at the coast of Mexico.

A surface ridge will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico through early
next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected in most
of the basin through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Honduras, beyond the
SE half of Cuba to the SE half of the Bahamas. Precipitation:
earlier scattered moderate to strong, that was just off the
coast of NW Cuba from 81W westward, has weakened and dissipated.
Scattered moderate to strong has developed in the Caribbean Sea
coastal waters of Cuba between 78W and 81W. Isolated moderate is
within 60 nm of the coast of Honduras between 84W and 86W.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic
wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous moderate and isolated to widely scattered
strong from 10N to 14N between 80W and the 84W/85W tropical
wave. The monsoon trough is along 08N74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
in clusters covers the coastal waters and inland areas of
Colombia, NW Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, and Panama, and
parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean waters from 05N to 11N
between Lake Maracaibo and 80W. A tropical wave is along 72W,
from 20N southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong has
moved from the Atlantic Ocean to Trinidad. This precipitation is
at the western end of the ITCZ precipitation.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through early next week. It is possible that the
wind speeds may pulse to near gale-force along the coast of
Colombia at night. A tropical wave will approach the Lesser
Antilles early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Honduras, beyond the
SE half of Cuba to the SE half of the Bahamas. A separate area
of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
27N northward from 66W westward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward from 60W
westward.

Light to gentle winds will prevail across the northern waters
through the weekend, as high pressure extends across the area
from the Central Atlantic Ocean. A trough will be passing
through the area. It is possible that the trough may bring some
moderate to fresh westerly winds north of 27N.

$$
mt
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