[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT FRI Jun 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 16N southward,
moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen along the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 15N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
about 200 nm to the west of the wave axis from 15N-21N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from 17N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted in the coastal waters of Panama and
Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes though coast of Guinea near 09N14W, to
10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 09N30W, then continues
west of the tropical wave from 08N35W to 07N44W, then from 06N48W
to 05N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 12N
between 15W and 30W; and from 06N to 12N between 35W and 39W and
near the coast of Brazil from 50W east.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high in the Southeast
Plains extending to the coastal border of Texas and Mexico.
ASCAT data indicates east to southeast moderate to fresh winds
across the western Gulf and lighter winds to the east. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the northwest Gulf from the
coastal waters of Veracruz, Mexico north to the border of
Louisiana and Texas, west of 93W.

The surface ridge over the Southeast Plains will remain in
Control over the Gulf waters into early next week. Moderate to
fresh E to SE wind is expected across most of the basin through
Tue, but light winds will prevail over the NE Gulf during this
time.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is about 120 nm to the SSW of Jamaica, through the Windward
Passage, then northeastward to 32N57W in the Atlantic Ocean.
Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the tropical wave
Along 81W. Most of the strong thunderstorm activity south of 11N
is associated to the tropical wave and Pacific monsoon trough.
Scatterometer data shows the fresh to strong northeast winds across
the Lesser Antilles and moderate to fresh trades over the central
Caribbean. Strong easterly winds are noted north of Colombia.  Fresh
to strong trades will prevail across the south central Caribbean
into early next week. Winds may pulse to near gale force along the
coast of Colomia at nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is about 200 nm to the SSW of Jamaica, through the Windward
Passage, then northeast into the southern Bahamas. At the surface,a
1029 mb high pressure prevails across the Atlantic Ocean centered
near 30N73W. Current ASCAT shows moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds from 09N-22N. In the forecast, light to gentle winds will
prevail into the weekend as high pressure extends across the area
from the central Atlantic.

$$
MTorres
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