[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
812 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W south of 17N, moving W
near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the
wave axis from 08N-12N. There is no convection north of 12N due to
the presence of the Saharan air layer, which is characterized by
a dry and stable air mass with dense Saharan dust.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W south of 15N, moving W
near 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm
of the wave axis from 07N-13N. A stable air mass associated to the
Saharan air layer is limiting convection N of 13N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W south of 20N moving W
near 20 kt. No convection is noted.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W south of 20N moving W at
10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen south of 15N and
west of 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 09N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N20W to 07N25W. It resumes from 07N28W to
07N50W and from 07N53W to 06N56W. Aside from convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-38W.
Similar convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ west of 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure is across the basin being anchored by a 1020
mb high in the NE Gulf. A generally weak pressure gradient across
the region support moderate SE winds west of 90W and light to
gentle variable flow elsewhere. Low level water vapor imagery show
abundant moisture inflow from the Caribbean, which along with
diffluence aloft support scattered showers and tstms over the NW
basin.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast
over the western Gulf Mon night through Thu night as the pressure
gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Azores high extends a ridge axis to the northern Caribbean
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure
associated with a tropical wave is supporting fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean. A plume of Saharan Air Layer
cover the waters east of this wave with axis near 75W. A second
tropical wave is moving across western Honduras and is supporting
fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise,
divergence aloft is supporting heavy showers and tstms over the SW
Caribbean over Nicaragua and Costa Rica adjacent waters.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the middle
of the week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each
night through Thu night with seas building to near 12 ft during
the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores high extends a ridge across the basin and support
stable conditions. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a
surface trough that extends from 31N49W to 26N54W. Scattered
showers and tstms are within 120 nm either side of the trough.

High pressure will prevail across the offshore waters through Fri.
Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the
waters north of Hispaniola each night through Thu night.

$$
Ramos
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