[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W south of 17N, moving W
near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of
the wave axis from 08N-12N. There is no convection north of 12N
due to the presence of the Saharan air layer, which is
characterized by a dry and stable air mass with dense Saharan
dust.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W south of 15N, moving W
near 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm
of the wave axis from 07N-13N. A stable air mass associated to
the Saharan air layer is limiting convection N of 13N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W/74W south of 20N moving
W near 20 kt. No convection is noted.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W south of 20N moving W at
10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen south of 15N and
west of 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 09N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N20W to 07N25W. It resumes from 07N28W to
07N50W and from 07N53W to 06N56W. Aside from convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-38W.
Similar convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ west of 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico
near 28N85W. Isolated moderate convection is over central and
south Florida, and over the Straits of Florida. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over much of the Gulf waters, except in
the vicinity of the high pressure center where light to gentle
winds prevail.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
forecast period. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight
seas
are expected today. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast over the western Gulf Mon night through Thu night as
the
pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure
over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As typical for this time of year, tropical waves are traversing
the Caribbean waters. Please see the tropical waves section
above.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
south of 13N between 76W-84W. Strong to near gale force winds
prevail across the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean, except for the far
NW Caribbean where gentle to moderate winds prevail. The GOES-16
Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that a large, westward
moving plume of dense Saharan dust is moving across the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The leading edge of this plume has reached 66W and
is expected to continue spreading westward.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the
middle
of the week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
Winds will pulse to near gale force near the coast of Colombia
each night through Thu night with seas building to near 12 ft
with
the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection is over the W Atlantic south of 29N
between 74W-80W. A 1020 mb low is centered over the central
Atlantic near 31N49W. A surface trough extends southwest from the
low to 24N57W. Isolated moderate convection is within 360 nm
east
of the trough. A large plume of Saharan dust continues to spread
across the tropical waters. The Saharan dust appears to be
particularly dense from 10N-20N between 40W-60W, with a second
surge seen between Africa and 30W. Moderate to fresh tradewinds
prevail south of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 20N.

High pressure will prevail across the offshore waters of the
western Atlantic Ocean through the next week. Fresh to
occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola
at night through Thu night.

$$
Formosa
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