[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 AM Mon Jun 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 30.3N 90.2W at 08/0300
UTC or 20 nm NNW of New Orleans Louisiana and is moving NNW at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Most of the showers and
thunderstorms in the immediate area of Cristobal are Inland across
the middle Mississippi Valley, but some showers are moving across
the central and eastern Gulf Coast, mostly along the Alabama and
Florida Panhandle coastline. Strong southerly wind and seas as high
as 17 ft encompass much of the north central and northeast Gulf.

Cristobal will continue moving NNW and increase in forward speed
through Monday.  A turn toward the north is forecast on Monday
night, followed by a northeastward motion late Tuesday and
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move
inland across southeastern Louisiana through early Monday morning,
and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml,
and the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W south of 13N and is
moving W around 15-20 kt to the south of the Cape Verde Islands.
A plume of dust is emerging off the coast of Mauritania into the
northeast flow ahead of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate
showers are noted along the monsoon trough east of the wave from
02N-05N between 24W-26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W south of 12N,
moving W at 10 kt. Some scattered showers are seen within 90 nm.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W south of 15N into
northern Guyana and eastern Venezuela, and is moving W around
10-15 kt. The tropical wave is also starting to interact with
a sharp upper trough to its northwest, extending over the
Leeward Islands. This interaction, along with abundant moisture,
is helping support scattered showers moving across the in portions
of the Lesser Antilles. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted
across Guyana and eastern Venezuela as well.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from SW
Hispaniola near 19N southward to northeast Colombia, and is moving W
around 10-15 kt. This tropical wave is moving into an area of dry
subsident northerly flow in the mid to upper levels, and no
significant shower or thunderstorm is associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near
12N16W to 07N21W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to
06N43W. Scattered moderate showers are within 100 nm of the ITCZ
between 28W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
on Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Outside of the immediate are of impact from Cristobal in the
north central and northeast Gulf, the only significant
thunderstorm activity is north of the Yucatan. Mainly moderate SSW
winds are noted in all but the far northwest Gulf, where winds are
light and variable over offshore waters. Seas are generally 6 to 8
ft in the remainder of the Gulf in a mix of swell, except 3 to 6 ft
over the far southwest Gulf.

Cristobal will move farther inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 32.0N 91.1W by Mon morning, then move northward away
from the area into Arkansas Mon evening.  Winds and seas will begin
to subside late tonight through Mon night over the north-central
gulf waters. Weak Atlantic high pressure will build westward across
the area Mon night through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico has disrupted the
normal subtropical ridge north the Caribbean basin. This pattern
is supporting only gentle to moderate trade winds across the
Caribbean, with an area of fresh trades off the coast of
northeast Colombia. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft overall, with
slightly higher in that area of fresh winds off Colombia. A few
showers are noted moving through the Leeward Islands. But
otherwise generally dry mid and upper levels are inhibiting
significant shower or thunderstorm activity.

Relatively weak high pressure north the area will maintain
moderate mainly moderate winds into the weekend. One tropical
wave S of Hispaniola tonight will move W into Central America
by Tue. Another tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles
late tonight, south of Puerto Rico early Tue, then the central
Caribbean Wed night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this wave in the eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad ridging dominates most of the Atlantic, anchored by a 1027
mb high pressure center near 37N40W. Because of this, light to
gentle breezes with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over much of the
area west of 60W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off
the coast of Florida, north of the Bahamas. This activity is
ahead of a cold front currently off the Carolinas moving south.
A trough is analyzed from 31N60W to 27N68W with thunderstorms
north of this trough from 29N-31N between 64W-69W.

The prolonged period of showers, thunderstorms, and unsettled
weather off the SE U.S. coast and N of the Bahamas will end by
Mon. A weak cold front will enter waters S of Bermuda early Mon,
then cross areas NE and E of the Bahamas into Tue. Ahead of the
front, strong W to SW winds are likely N of 26N and E of 68W
Mon. High pressure will build southward across the western part
of the area Mon night through Fri night. Weak low pressure is
expected to form early a few hundred miles east or northeast of
Bermuda along the previously mentioned frontal boundary by mid-
week and meander over the western Atlantic.

$$
AReinhart
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