[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2359 UTC Sun Jun 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 29.1N 89.9W at 07/2100
UTC or 60 nm south of New Orleans Louisiana moving north at 6
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Most of the
showers and thunderstorms in the immediate area of Cristobal are
onshore, but a few showers and thunderstorms are active just off
the mouth of the Mississippi River. Strong southerly wind and
seas as high as 22 ft encompass much of the north central and
northeast Gulf, north of 25N between Apalachicola Florida and
southeast Louisiana.

Cristobal is expected to continue moving northward and inland
across Louisiana overnight into early Mon, then continue
northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest
High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is moving westward around 15 kt
to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. A plume of dust is
emerging off the coast of Mauritania into the northeast flow
ahead of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate showers are noted
along the monsoon trough east of the wave near 09N20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W south of 15N,
moving west at 10 kt. This wave shows up reasonably well in low
level precipitable water imagery and with satellite derived
winds. No significant showers or thunderstorms are associated
with this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along roughly 60W south of
17N, or from northern Guyana to Barbados, and is estimated to be
moving west around 15 kt. The tropical wave is observed on lower
level precipitable water imagery and satellite derived winds. The
tropical wave is also starting to interact with a sharp upper
trough to its northwest, extending over the Leeward Islands. This
interaction along with abundant moisture, is helping support
scattered showers moving across the islands from Saint Lucia to
Guadeloupe. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted across
Guyana and eastern Venezuela as well.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed between the
Guajira peninsula in northeast Colombia and Cabo Beata in
Hispaniola, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. This tropical wave is
moving into an area of dry subsident northerly flow in the mid
to upper levels, and no significant shower or thunderstorm is
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near
12N16W to 04N25W. A segment of the intertropical convergence
zone continues from from 04N25W to 05N40W. Another segment of the
ITCZ reaches from 06N43W to northeast Brazil near 02N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
on Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Outside of the immediate are of impact from Cristobal in the
north central and northeast Gulf, the only significant
thunderstorm activity is about 120 nm west of Fort Myers Florida
in the southeast Gulf. Mainly moderate SW winds are noted in all
but the far northwest Gulf, where winds are light and variable
over offshore waters. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft in the
remainder of the Gulf in a mix of swell, except 4 to 6 ft over
the far southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to subside late
tonight through Mon night over the north-central Gulf waters.
Weak Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the area
Mon night through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The presence of Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico has disrupted the
normal subtropical ridge north the Caribbean basin. This pattern
is supporting only gentle to moderate trade winds across the
Caribbean, with perhaps 15 to 20 kt still off the coast of
northeast Colombia. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft overall, with
slightly higher in that area of fresh winds off Colombia. A few
showers are noted moving through the Leeward Islands. But
otherwise generally dry mid and upper levels are inhibiting
significant shower or thunderstorm activity.

For the forecast, the relatively weak high pressure north of the
area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across
most of the Caribbean through Tue, then mainly moderate winds
through Fri night. A tropical wave will enter the eastern
Caribbean Mon, move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean
through late Wed and the central Caribbean Thu through late Fri.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this wave in
the far eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1020 mb high pressure is centered northeast of the northern
Bahamas near 21N74W. This broad ridge is maintaining light to
gentle breezes with 2 to 4 ft seas over much of the area west of
60W. A few showers and thunderstorms north of the area are
slowly moving southward toward 30N. This activity is ahead of a
cold front currently off the Carolinas moving south.

For the forecast, this cold front will push south of Bermuda
tonight, then move eastward to northeast and east of the Bahamas
through Tue. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong west to
southwest winds are possible, mainly north of 27N and east of 70W
through Mon. High pressure will build southward across the
western part of the area Mon night through Fri night. Weak low
pressure is expected to form early a few hundred miles east or
northeast of Bermuda along this frontal boundary and meander over
the western Atlantic.

Farther east, a larger high pressure area dominates the area
north of 20N east of 60W, maintaining moderate east winds north
of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades farther south. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft.

$$
Christensen
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