[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032122
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2055 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Cristobal is weakening very slowly while moving over land near
Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. It is centered near 18.3N 91.8W at
03/2100 UTC moving toward the SE or 135 degrees at 3 kt. A turn
toward the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-
northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of
eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Estimated minimal central
pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression
by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin
on Friday as it moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is
expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the
Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and
Yucatan, with 5-10 inches of rain in Veracruz and Oaxaca. In
Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and
southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional
rounds of heavy rain. The rains could lead to additional life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by yhe
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation (i.e. CAG), that has been bringing heavy
rainfall and severe flooding to parts of Central America and
southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected through Fri night. As Cristobal interacts
with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, abundant tropical
moisture in a southwesterly flow will continue to impact SE
Mexico and northern Central America. Rounds of heavy rain are
expected in El Salvador, with additional 10-15 inches of rain,
mainly from Thu afternoon through early Sat. Belize and Honduras
could receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. Rainfall in all of these areas
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Please read bulletins and forecasts issued by your local or
national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W, from
18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted within this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W and from 01N-17N,
is moving W  at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across
the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 09N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 11N15W to
08N25W. The ITCZ is from 04N34W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough and within 300
nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

A pressure gradient prevails across the basin between T.S.
Cristobal and surface ridging anchored over southeast U.S. With
this, moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of
the basin. Upper level diffluent flow prevails across the
eastern Gulf enhancing scattered moderate convection mainly east
of 86W.

Cristobal will weaken as it moves inland to near 18.4N 91.7W
this evening, then to 18.1N 91.1W Thu morning, and weaken to a
tropical depression near 18.9N 90.9W Thu evening. Cristobal will
move back over water near 20.0N 90.6W early Fri and re-intensify
to a tropical storm near 21.5N 90.7W on Fri evening with maximum
sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt. Cristobal is then forecast
to move in a general north-northwest track through Sun while
intensifying some before moving inland in the vicinity of the
north-central Gulf coast late on Sun. Expect swells from
Cristobal to begin impacting the NW and north-central waters on
Sat. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly
flow will be present across most of the area through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall situation for Central America due to the CAG.

Scattered moderate convection is noted west of 80W due to the
CAG and the proximity of T.S Cristobal. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds west of 70W while light
to moderate easterly winds prevail east of 70W.

The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico for several days, producing
widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean.
Strong SE winds and seas are expected to continue in the Gulf of
Honduras and east of Yucatan through Sat. Fresh trade winds are
expected in the central Caribbean through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection over the west
Atlantic mainly west of 77W. To the east, a stationary front
extends from 31N50W to 25N76W. Scattered showers are noted along
the front. A cod front extends from 31N16W to 25N29W to 29N42W.
No convection is noted with this boundary.

The stationary front extending will slowly dissipate through
tonight. High pressure north of the front will support moderate
to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Sat
before diminishing slightly Sun.

$$
GR
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