[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 18.6N 92.0W at
03/1500 UTC, moving southeastward at 3 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection prevails from 16N-22N between 89W-
95W.

A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected on
Thursday and Friday.  On the forecast track, the center will
move over the land mass of eastern Mexico through Thursday.
The center is forecast to move back over the Gulf of Mexico by
Friday. Please read the latest NHC forecast advisory at
hurricanes.gov for more information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation (i.e. CAG), that has been bringing heavy
rainfall and severe flooding to parts of Central America and
southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected through Saturday in parts of southern
Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern
sections of Veracruz and Oaxaca. For Central America: in parts
of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras: it
is likely that these areas also may receive additional heavy
rainfall. It is possible that the rainfall total for the entire
event, from tropical cyclones and the gyre circulation, may end
up reaching 35 inches, nearly one meter. It is possible that the
rains may lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please
read bulletins and forecasts issued by your local or national
meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W, from
18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted within this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W and from 01N-17N,
is moving W  at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across
the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 09N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 11N15W to
08N25W. The ITCZ is from 04N34W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough and within 300
nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

A pressure gradient prevails across the basin between T.S.
Cristobal and surface ridging anchored over southeast U.S. With
this, moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of
the basin. Upper level diffluent flow prevails across the
eastern Gulf enhancing scattered moderate convection mainly east
of 86W.

Cristobal will weaken as it moves inland to near 18.4N 91.7W
this evening, then to 18.1N 91.1W Thu morning, and weaken to a
tropical depression near 18.9N 90.9W Thu evening. Cristobal will
move back over water near 20.0N 90.6W early Fri and re-intensify
to a tropical storm near 21.5N 90.7W on Fri evening with maximum
sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt. Cristobal is then forecast
to move in a general north-northwest track through Sun while
intensifying some before moving inland in the vicinity of the
north-central Gulf coast late on Sun. Expect swells from
Cristobal to begin impacting the NW and north-central waters on
Sat. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly
flow will be present across most of the area through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall situation for Central America due to the CAG.

Scattered moderate convection is noted west of 80W due to the
CAG and the proximity of T.S Cristobal. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds west of 70W while light
to moderate easterly winds prevail east of 70W.

The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico for several days, producing
widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean.
Strong SE winds and seas are expected to continue in the Gulf of
Honduras and east of Yucatan through Sat. Fresh trade winds are
expected in the central Caribbean through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection over the west
Atlantic mainly west of 77W. To the east, a stationary front
extends from 31N50W to 25N76W. Scattered showers are noted along
the front. A cod front extends from 31N16W to 25N29W to 29N42W.
No convection is noted with this boundary.

The stationary front extending will slowly dissipate through
tonight. High pressure north of the front will support moderate
to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Sat
before diminishing slightly Sun.

$$

ERA
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