[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A gale is over the SW Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz Mexico. NW to N
gale winds are from 19N-20N between 95W-97W. Seas are 8-11 ft. The
gale is forecast to last six hours until 01/0000 UTC. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1013 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 28N57W moving WNW.
Gale force winds are from 26N-28N between 58W-60W. Seas are 9-11
ft. The 24 hour forecast for the low is near 27N37W. Gale force
winds will then be from 24N-31N between 35W-46W, with seas 10-14
ft. the gale is forecast to end on 02/0600 UTC. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front will move off the eastern U.S. coast on Saturday. By
Sunday 02/1200 UTC, the cold front is expected to be from 31N66W
to 21.5N77W. Ahead of the front, SW to W gale-force winds will
develop from 23N-31N between 53W-81W. Seas will range from 10 to
13 ft in NE to E swell. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 00N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 04N38W. Scattered moderate convection along the
ITCZ from 02N-05N between 16W-28W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 02N-07S between 29W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See the
section above for details.

As of 31/2100 UTC, a 1014 mb low is over the NE Gulf of Mexico
near 28.5N85.5W. A cold front extending SW from the low to 22N90W
to 21N93W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A warm front
extends eastward from the low to the W Atlantic near 31N80W. A
prefrontal squall line extends from 26N83W to 23N87W moving E.
Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the squall line.
Key West Florida radar shows approaching thunderstorms.

The low 1014 mb low will shift east of the area tonight, while
the trailing cold front will sweep SE across the Gulf through
late Sat. Winds are gale force off Veracruz this evening, with
fresh to strong winds expected elsewhere across the basin through
Sat night. High pres following the front will pass E across the
Gulf Sun and Mon, ahead of another cold front moving off the Texas
coast late Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging extends across the area. No significant
convection is occurring at this time. Scattered showers are moving
across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The latest scatterometer data
depicts strong easterly winds north of Colombia. Across the rest
of the basin, moderate to fresh trades are noted. Seas off the
Colombian coast are up to 8 feet.

Fresh to strong winds are expected over the south-
central Caribbean through the middle of next week as high
pressure builds north of the region. Winds may pulse to near
gale force speeds near the coast of Colombia each night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to fresh
speeds over the Caribbean this weekend. Winds and seas will
increase Sat night and Sun behind a cold front entering the NW
Caribbean. Strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba and
through the Windward Passage Sun night into Mon. The front will
stall Mon from near Hispaniola to the NW Caribbean, then weaken
and dissipate on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Gale Warning are issued for the Atlantic. See above.

Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic N of 23N and W of 77W
to include the N Bahamas. A cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N44W to 27N50W to a 1014 mb low near 28N57W. A
cold front continues W from the low to 23N70W. A prefrontal trough
extends from 31N39W to 24N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
N of 26N between 38W-43W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the cold front E of 66W.

The low will move quickly eastward over the next 24 hours with
gale force winds. A stronger cold front will sweep across the W
Atlantic Sat through Sun. Gale force winds will be ahead of this
front on Sun. Winds and seas will subside over the W Atlantic
early next week as high pressure follows.

$$
Formosa
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