[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1720 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

At 31/1500 UTC, 1013 mb low near 28N88W had a cold front extending
SW from it to a 1012 mb low near 22N96W. From this low, the cold
front stretches toward Mexico near 19N95W. Behind this front,
N-NW gale-force winds will develop by 31/1800 UTC from 19N- 20N
between 95W-96W and will continue through 01/0000 UTC. Seas to 8
feet are expected. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1012 mb low near 28N60W had a recent scatterometer pass that
showed gale force winds within 90 nm of the NW and SE quadrants.
These gale force winds are expected to end by 31/1500 UTC.
However, as the cold front associated with this low presses
eastward across the central Atlantic, NW gale- force winds will
develop behind the front by 01/1200 UTC. Expect these gale-force
winds to occur from 28N- 32N between 32W-45W as the front presses
eastward. Seas will range from 8 to 13 ft in NW to N swell. These
gale-force winds will end by 02/0600 UTC. See the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front will move off the eastern U.S. coast on Saturday. By
Sunday morning, the cold front is expected to be from 31N66W to
21N77W. Ahead of the front, SW to W gale- force winds will develop
by 02/1200 UTC from 28N-31N between 59W-70W. Seas will range from
11 to 13 ft in NE to E swell. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the caost of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 01N27W to the coast
of Brazil near 04N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection along the ITCZ from 06S-03N between 24W-39W. Scattered
showers are also seen near the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 13W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is forecast for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See
the section above for details.

At 31/1500 UTC, 1013 mb low near 28N88W had a cold front
extending SW from it to a 1012 mb low near 22N96W. From this low,
the cold front stretches toward Mexico near 19N95W. A warm front
extends eastward from the 1013 mb low across the eastern Gulf to
26N81W. A trough is analyzed from 25N88W to 22N93W to the coast of
Mexico near 19N93W. Near this trough, a line of strong
thunderstorms with frequent lightning is observed from 21N-26N
between 85W-92W. There are also scattered thunderstorms from 20N-
24N between 92W- 95W. Scattered showers are seen along the cold
and warm fronts from 25N-30N between 83W-93W. High pressure
building behind the cold front is bringing dry air across the NW
Gulf.

The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds
ahead of the front. In the western Gulf near the 1012 mb low,
gale force NW winds are observed. A recent altimeter pass showed
seas up to 12 ft near the gale-force winds off of Veracruz, with
seas range from 3 to 5 feet across the rest of the basin.

The low 1013 mb low will shift east of the area through tonight,
while the trailing cold front will move across the Gulf through
late Sat. Winds may reach gale force off Veracruz late today
behind the front, with fresh to strong winds expected elsewhere
across the basin through Sat night. High pressure following the
front will pass eastward across the Gulf Sun into Mon, ahead of
another cold front that will move off the Texas coast late Tue
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging extends across the area. No significant
convection is occurring at this time. Scattered showers are moving
across the Virgin Islands and south of Puerto Rico. The latest
scatterometer data depicts strong easterly winds north of
Colombia. Across the rest of the basin, moderate to fresh trades
are noted. Seas off the Colombian coast are up to 6 feet.

Fresh to strong winds are expected over the south-central
Caribbean through the middle of next week as high pressure builds
north of the region. Winds may pulse to near gale force speeds
near the coast of Colombia each night. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trade winds will increase to fresh speeds over the
Caribbean this weekend. Winds and seas will increase Sat night and
Sun behind a cold front entering the NW Caribbean. Strong winds
will develop in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage
Sun night into Mon. The front will stall Mon from near Hispaniola
to the NW Caribbean, then weaken and dissipate on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is forecast in the western Atlantic. See the
section above for details.

A 1016 mb low is off the coast of the Bahamas near 25N76W. Buoys
in the western Atlantic are reporting seas up to 10 ft. Farther
east, a 1012 mb low is near 27N60W with gale-force winds
associated with it. A cold front extends along the low from 31N47W
to 26N73W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N42W to
24N55W. Another trough south of the low is analyzed from 26N60W to
25N66W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring ahead of the
front from 25N-31N between 35W-56W. Off the Windward Islands, a
trough is analyzed from 17N55W to 11N57W with no significant
convection associated with it. An impressive trough is off the
coast of Africa from 29N23W to 17N25W with no significant
convection associated with it.

The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
winds in the western Atlantic. Behind the cold front in the
central Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring. Seas
are ranging from 3 to 7 feet across the Atlantic.

The cold front will stall and dissipate later today or tonight. A
stronger cold front will sweep across the region Sat through Sun.
Expect strong to near gale force winds and building seas north of
27N, with minimal gale force winds possible ahead of the front E
of 70W on Sun. Winds and seas will subside early next week as high
pressure following the front moves eastward along roughly 29N.

$$
AKR
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