[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

Low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf Friday and pull a
cold front across the region through the weekend. Behind the
front, gale-force NW to N winds are expected offshore of Veracruz
Mexico Saturday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N26W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Numerous moderate with embedded
isolated to scattered strong convection is seen over Brazil and
offshore from 03.5S-01N between 43W-52W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 01N-06N between 06W-20W, and from 04S-01S
between 27W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See
above.

As of 29/2100 UTC, a 1008 mb low is over the NE Gulf near
29N85.5W. A cold front extends from the low to 22N90W to 18N95W. A
stationary front extends from the low to near Orlando Florida. A
surface trough extends W-NW from the low to near Waveland
Mississippi. A potent mid-level trough over the northern Gulf
Coast is supporting these features. Another surface trough is
about 120 nm ahead of the cold front, oriented from 24N84W to
18N91W. Areas of isolated to scattered moderate with locally
strong convection are seen inside the area enclosed by the points
28N82W to 24N80W to 18N89W to 21N89W to 27N86W to 28N82W. Higher
surface pressure and drier air are over the western and northern
Gulf behind the front. The latest ASCAT pass from late Wed morning
shows strong NW winds covering the Gulf of Mexico behind the
front. These winds will be diminishing this evening.

The 1008 mb low over the NE Gulf will track eastward across
northern Florida tonight. Its associated cold front will reach
from near central Florida to the Yucatan Channel tonight, then
exit the basin on Thu. Another low pressure will develop over the
northern Gulf on Fri and pull a cold front across the region
through the weekend, resulting in increasing northerly winds and
building seas across much of the Gulf waters through Sat night.
High pressure will build across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 24N84W to 18N91W. Scattered moderate
to locally strong convection is over the NW Caribbean north of 20N
and west of 84W, including over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
showers and tstorms are also seen over portions of Panama and
Costa Rica. Elsewhere, relatively dry air covers the basin due to
broad mid-level ridging. The latest ASCAT pass from late Wed
morning shows generally gentle winds across most of the basin.

Weak high pressure north of the region will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Thu
night. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast
of Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds north of the
area. Winds and seas will increase over the NW Caribbean Sat
through Sun night as a cold front moves across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are occurring over the western Atlantic to the
east of Florida and Georgia, ahead of a low pressure system
currently over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The low will move
across northern Florida tonight, then track eastward across the
Atlantic waters east of Florida through Thu night, bringing strong
to near gale force winds to the waters north of the northwest
Bahamas.

Farther E, A cold front extends from 32N45W to 24N58W, dissipating
to 22N65W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm
ahead of the front north of 28N and east of 49W. Scattered showers
are elsewhere ahead of the front from 22N-29N between 35W-55W. A
surface trough is from 22N58W to 18N63W with isolated showers.
Elsewhere, troughing over the far E Atlantic is leading to
scattered showers from 20N to the Canary Islands between the west
coast of Africa and 20W.

In the extended forecast for the west Atlantic, a strong cold
front will sweep across the region Sat through Sun, resulting in
increasing winds and building seas north of 25N between 50W-80W.
Winds near gale force and seas in the 12-18 ft range are possible
Sat night through Sun night, especially north of 27N and east of
78W.

$$
Hagen
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