[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-06N between 10W-17W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere in the vicinity of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low is centered near 28N92W. A cold front extends south
from the low to 21N97W. A warm front extends east from the low to
29N85W. Scattered showers and strong tstorms are seen well ahead
of the cold front, particulalry from 22N-25N between 83W-87W. To
the south, scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the southern
Bay of Campeche and are asociated with a surface trough that extends
from 22N89W to the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh wind
speeds are present behind the front in the northwest and central
portions of the Gulf.

The low pressure center over SE Louisiana will track eastward
across the far NE Gulf through this evening, then cross northern
Florida tonight. Its associated cold front will reach from near
central Florida to the Yucatan Channel tonight, then exit the
basin on Thu. Low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf on
Fri and pull a cold front across the region through Sat, resulting
in increasing northerly winds and building seas across much of
the Gulf waters through Sat night. High pressure will build across
the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid- to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea. Weak pressure gradient remains in place across
the basin with light and gentle winds prevailing. Isolated to
scattered showers are located over Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere,
the weather is relatively quiet.

The weak high pressure north of the region will maintain gentle
to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Thu
night. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast
of Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds north of the
area. Winds and seas will increase over the NW Caribbean Sat
through Sun night as a cold front moves across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 25N64W and begins to weaken
from 25N64W to 24N69W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along and
ahead the cold front. Strong winds are on the north side of the
front, north of 26N. Farther east, an area of upper-level
divergence over the central Atlantic is inducing scattered showers
north of 23N between 35W-51W. A surface trough extends from
23N57W to 17N63W, with minimal shower activity noted. A sharp upper-
level trough along 22W extending southward is responsible for
some scattered showers seen from 18N-28N between 14W-22W,
and south of the Cape Verde Islands.

The weakening cold front east of the Bahamas will dissipate later
today. A low pressure system will move across northern Florida
tonight, then track eastward across the northern waters through
Thu night. A strong cold front will sweep across the region Sat
through Sun, resulting in increasing winds and building seas
across the SW N Atlantic.

$$
BCZ
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