[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01S41W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-06N between 10W-17W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere in the vicinity of
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends south from a 1010 mb low pressure centered
near 28N92W to near Tampico to 22N97W. A warm front extends east
from the low to 28N89W. A potent occluded low that is prevalent
from the surface to 400 mb is centered near the Texas/Oklahoma
border. This system is driving the aforementioned fronts.
Scattered showers and strong tstorms are seen ahead of the front.
To the south, scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the Bay
of Campeche. Surface trough extends from 22N87W to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate to fresh wind speeds are present behind the
front in the northwest portion of the Gulf.

The cold front associated with weak low pressure will reach from
central Florida to the Yucatan Channel tonight, then exit the
basin Thu. Fresh to strong northwesterly winds are expected west
of the front. Another cold front will move across the Gulf Thu
night through Sat, followed by fresh northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid- to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea. Weak pressure gradient remains in place across
the basin with light and gentle winds prevailing. Isolated to
scattered showers are noted over Costa Rica. A surface trough
extends over W Cuba, with minimal shower activity noted. Scattered
showers and tstorms are present across the Greater Antilles and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, the weather is relatively
quiet.

Weak high pressure north of the region will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds across most of the basin through Thu night.
Strong to near gale force winds are expected to develop near the
coast of Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds north of
the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 24N67W and begins to weaken
to 24N73W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along the cold front.
Strong winds are on the north side of the front, north of 27N.
Farther E, an area of upper-level divergence over the central
Atlantic is inducing scattered showers north of 25N between 36W-
45W. A sharp upper-level trough along 25W extending southward is
responsible for some scattered showers seen from 14N- 25N between
18W-25W, including over the Cape Verde Islands.

The weakening cold front east of the Bahamas will dissipate east
of the area later today. A weak low pressure system will move
across northern Florida tonight, and track eastward across the
area through Thu night. Another cold front will move east of
Florida on Sat, with strong southerly winds expected ahead of the
front in northern waters Sat through Sun.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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