[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to
02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
04S-02N between 23W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere
from 05S-03N between 21W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 29/0300 UTC, a cold front extends south from A 1012 mb low
pressure centered near 29N94W to near Tampico to 22N97W. A warm
front extends east from the low to 29N90W. A pre-frontal trough
is about 60 nm east of the front from 28N93W to 23N95W. A potent
occluded low that is prevalent from the surface to 400 mb is
centered near the Texas/Oklahoma border, not far from Dallas.
This system is driving the aforementioned fronts. Scattered
showers and strong tstorms are seen over the western Gulf of
Mexico within 40 nm of the trough axis. Additional showers and
tstorms are offshore the coast of southwest Louisiana. Water vapor
imagery shows dry air over the southern and eastern Gulf. Gentle
to moderate wind speeds cover most of the basin.

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf this evening and will move
eastward reaching from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Wed morning, and from near Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Channel on Wed
night. Weak low pressure will develop along the front over the NE
Gulf Wed and quickly cross northern Florida. The associated cold
front is forecast to extend from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan
Channel on Thu morning. Another cold front will move across the
Gulf waters Thu night through Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and building seas will follow the fronts.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid- to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 17N75W.
Weak pressure gradient remains in place across the basin with
light and gentle winds prevailing. Isolated to scattered showers
are noted over Costa Rica. A surface trough extends over W Cuba
to the Yucatan Channel, with minimal shower activity noted.
Elsewhere, the weather is relatively quiet.

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain
generally gentle to moderate winds across most of the Caribbean
Sea for the next several days. Winds will increase across the
south-central Caribbean Thu night through Sun night, with strong
to near gale force winds developing near the coast of Colombia.
Winds may pulse to minimal gale force on Fri night and Sat night
near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N67W to 24N77W in the NW
Bahamas. A surface trough continues from Andros Island to Havana
Cuba to the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers and tstorms are
along the cold front, including over portions of the central and
northwest Bahamas. Strong winds are on both sides of the front,
north of 27N. Farther E, an area of upper-level divergence over
the central Atlantic is inducing scattered showers north of 25N
between 36W-45W. A sharp upper-level trough along 25W extending
southward is responsible for some scattered showers seen from
14N-25N between 18W-25W, including over the Cape Verde Islands.

The front will pass east of the forecast waters on Wed. A low
pressure system will move across northern Florida Wed, emerge off
the NE Florida coast Wed night, then track east across the area
through Thu night. Another low pressure system will track NE along
the eastern U.S. coast from Fri through Sat. The trailing cold
front will sweep across the area Sat and Sat night, with strong to
near gale force winds expected across the northern waters.


$$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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