[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extending across the Florida Straits into the
Yucatan Peninsula will continue moving southeast through tonight.
As the front moves away from the area, the gale-force northerly
winds near Veracruz, Mexico will diminish to strong category by
late tonight. Seas will range between 8-10 ft in this area. See
the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

On Tue evening, a surface low is forecast to develop along a cold
front to the east of the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between
this low and high pressure building into the SE U.S. will develop gale
force northerly winds north of the Bahamas by Tue night. These
winds will shift eastward through Thu and to northeast of the
forecast waters Thu night. Seas will range between 10-17 ft in the
this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands,
Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean passages through Tuesday.
Large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding
will affect the Atlantic-facing shores of these islands through
tonight. See information from your local or national
meteorological service for more specific information on beach
hazards in your area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N13W
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S43W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the
boundaries at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Veracruz Mexico.
See the section above for details.

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to
the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N88W to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N93W. Outside of gale area, fresh to strong
northerly winds prevail across the basin. Scattered showers are
over the Bay of Campeche, north of the front.

Gale conditions will prevail offshore of Veracruz Mexico into
tonight. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift
eastward by the middle of the week allowing for the next cold front
to move across the northwest Gulf by Thu. As the front moves
across the basin through the weekend, moderate to fresh winds will
dominate the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is entering the far west Caribbean, currently
extending across the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers. To
the southwest, scattered moderate convection prevails across
portions of Central America, reaching the southern
Caribbean waters mainly south of 10N between 77W-82W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin.

Long-period north swell will result in very large seas and
hazardous marine conditions across the Atlantic facing parts of
the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico through Tue night, before
gradually diminishing by mid-week. The cold front described above will
enter the NW Caribbean tonight and reach from eastern Cuba to the
northern coast of Honduras by Tue evening, bringing strong north
winds and higher seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning over
the west Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to the Straits of Florida near
24N80W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted behind the
front, while moderate southwesterly winds prevail south of the
front. Scattered showers prevail along the front, mainly north of
28N. To the east, a 1024 mb surface high is over the central
Atlantic near 31N50W. A cold front enters the east Atlantic near
31N32W and extends to 19N36W to 15N50W, then becomes stationary
from that point to 20N68W. Scattered showers within 60 nm of the
fronts. Another cold front is analyzed over the far east Atlantic
from the Canary Islands near 26N14W and to 31N24W. No significant
convection is noted with this last front.

Large seas east of the southeastern Bahamas will gradually
subside through early Tue. The cold front extending over the west
Atlantic will move across the rest of the Bahamas and into
eastern Cuba by Tue evening. A complex low pressure system is
forecast to develop along this front to the east of the Bahamas
Tue into Wed. The pressure gradient between the low and high
pressure building into the SE U.S. bring gale-force northerly
winds north of the Bahamas by Tue night. The gale-force winds
will shift eastward through Thu and to northeast of the forecast
waters by Thu night. A new cold front will move across the far
northwest waters by Sat.

$$

ERA
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