[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details on the special features
listed below:

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to
the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W to the Bay of
Campeche near 18N94W. Gale force NW winds are currently off the
coast of Veracruz. The gale will last through tonight. Seas will
range from 8-10 ft.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

On Tue evening, a 1004 mb surface low is forecast to develop over
the W Atlantic near 28N75W. Gale force winds are expected north
of 30N between 77W-78W, spreading to N of 29N between 71W-80W on
Wed. Seas will build to 15 ft.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands,
Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean passages through today
before subsiding tonight into Tuesday. Large surf, dangerous rip
currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic-
facing shores of these islands through today. See information from
your local or national meteorological service for more specific
information on beach hazards in your area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N09W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 00N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-
07N between 04W-23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Veracruz Mexico.
See the section above for details. A cold front extends from the
Straits of Florida near 25N80W to the south central Gulf of Mexico
near 22N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Outside of gale
area, 20-30 kt N to NE winds cover the Gulf of Mexico north of
the front. Scattered showers are over the SW portion of the basin,
N of the front. Isolated showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the
front. A good amount of cold air advection is N of the front,
especially over Florida. Freezing temperatures are expected as far
south as Orlando Florida Tue night.

Gale conditions will prevail offshore of Veracruz Mexico into
tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
shift E by the middle of the week. This will enable a cold front
to move into the NW Gulf Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends over the Leeward Islands from 17N60W to
19N67W. Isolated showers are noted across the N Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are over the Gulf of Honduras, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica,
and Panama. The air is relatively dry over the Windward Islands
due to mid-level anticyclonic flow and subsidence. Fresh trades
prevail from 10N-18N between 60W-80W, with strong to near gale
winds from 10N-16N between 70W-78W.

Long-period N swell will bring very large seas and hazardous
marine conditions across the Tropical North Atlantic and along
Atlantic facing parts of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico
today, before gradually diminishing into mid- week. A cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean this afternoon and reach from eastern
Cuba to the N Coast of Honduras by Tue evening, bringing strong N
winds and higher seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning over
the far west Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N71W to the Straits of Florida near
25N80W. Fresh to strong N winds are behind the front. Strong SW
winds are ahead of the front, north of 30N between 61W-73W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 45 nm of the front.
A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N50W. A cold
front enters the E Atlantic near 31N32W and extends to 20N37W to
17N42W to 16N50W, and continues as a stationary front to beyond
17N60W. Scattered showers within 60 nm of the front. The tail end
of another cold front extends from the Canary Islands near 27N13W
and to 31N22W.

Large seas E of the Turks and Caicos Islands will gradually
subside today from W to E. A cold front from near 31N71W to the
Florida Straits will reach the NW Bahamas this afternoon, then
move through the Bahamas and into eastern Cuba by Tue evening. Low
pressure is forecast to develop along this front to the east of
the Bahamas Tue into Wed. The pressure gradient between this low
and high pressure building into the SE U.S. bring gale force
northerly winds N of the Bahamas bu Tue night. The gale force
winds will shift eastward through Wed night.

$$
Formosa
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