[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details on the special features
listed below:

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends across the basin from Tampa Bay to 24N90W to
19N95W. Gale-force winds occurring offshore Tampico will end by
20/0600 UTC. Gale force NW winds will begin offshore Veracruz at
20/0600 UTC and will last through this evening, diminishing
overnight. Seas will range from 10-14 ft.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The latest ASCAT pass from 20/0130 UTC indicates winds near the
coast of Colombia are strong to near gale. These winds are
expected to increase to gale-force before 20/0600 UTC. Winds are
forecast to diminish below gale force around 20/1200 UTC. Seas
will range from 10 to 13 ft in this area.

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front that currently extends from 32N76W to Daytona Beach
will extend from 31N60W to 24N70W to 23N79W in 48 hours, at
22/0000 UTC. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of this cold
front and associated low pressure expected to develop Tue and Tue
night will lead to gale force N winds over the area north of 29N
between 77W-80W beginning Tuesday evening around 22/0000 UTC.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands,
Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean passages through today
before subsiding tonight and early Tuesday. Large surf, dangerous
rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the
Atlantic-facing shores of these islands through today. See
information from your local or national meteorological service for
more specific information on beach hazards in your area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 00N28W to 01N37W to
01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between
15W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 03S-05N
between 05W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico south
of 24N and west of 95W. See the section above for details. A cold
front extends across the basin from Tampa Bay to 24N90W to 19N95W.
Isolated showers are along and behind the front from 20N-25N
between 90W-98W. ASCAT data depicts strong N winds north of the
front.

The cold front over the Gulf will move southeast of the basin late
this afternoon. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front
will continue across the Gulf today. Gale force winds developing
offshore Veracruz will continue through this evening. Winds and
seas will diminish Tue and Tue night as high pressure builds over
the area. The high pressure will move eastward Wed and Wed night
setting up strong southerly return flow over the NW Gulf. These
winds will diminish as they shift eastward to the north-central
Gulf on Thu, then redevelop over the NE Gulf Thu night into Fri as
a cold front moves across the western and central Gulf. Fresh to
strong northerly winds will follow in behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are pulsing over the south-central Caribbean off
the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell currently
affecting the NE Caribbean passages will continue through today.
See the special features section above for details.

A stationary front extends across the far northeast portion of the
basin from 17.5N60W to Puerto Rico near 18N67W. Isolated showers
are noted across portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the waters south of Hispaniola and east of Jamaica. The latest
ASCAT data depicts strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean
from 10.5N-18N between 69W-78W, with fresh trades elsewhere from
from 10N-19N between 60W-80W. Low-topped scattered showers are
noted across the far west Caribbean waters from 16N-20N west of
80W.

Winds to gale force will continue along the coast of Colombia
through 1200 UTC this morning. Thereafter, the pressure gradient
responsible for the high winds will slacken, allowing winds to
diminish to strong levels into mid-week. Elsewhere, high pressure
building southwestward toward the Caribbean will result in strong
northeast to east winds over much of the central and eastern
Caribbean through early this morning, before the high moves to
the east and weakens. As a result, winds will diminish across most
of the area. Long-period N swell will continue to create very
large seas and hazardous marine conditions for the northeast
Caribbean passages through today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the swell event over
the central Atlantic and the Gale Warning over the far west
Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 32N76W to Daytona Beach Florida.
Scattered showers and tstorms are within 30 nm of a line from
28N79W to 31N75W to 32N72W. Isolated showers are elsewhere between
that line and the front. Surface high pressure ridging covers the
central Atlantic north of 20N between 40W-70W, anchored by a 1029
mb high near 34N51W. Farther E, a cold front extends from 32N32W
to 25N35W to 19N42W to 17N52W, continuing as a stationary front
from 17N52W to Puerto Rico near 18N67W. Scattered showers are
north of 25N between 28W-37W. ASCAT shows fresh to locally strong
NE or E winds over the NE Caribbean passages and the Atlantic from
17N-22N between 43W-63W.

Large seas across the western Atlantic waters will gradually
subside from W to E through today. The cold front from 32N76W to
Daytona Beach will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba this
evening, then become stationary from east of Bermuda to the
Windward Passage on Tue and gradually weaken through Thu. A tight
pressure gradient in the wake of this cold front and associated
low pressure expected to develop Tue and Tue night will bring
strong to near gale-force northerly winds over most of the western
waters north of about 26N Tue through Thu, with gale-force winds
possible over some of those waters. Winds and seas will diminish
over the area Thu night through Fri night.

$$
Hagen
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