[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends across the basin from 25N84W to 25N90W to
20N96W. Gale-force winds are expected from 22N-24N and west of
96W, with seas ranging between 9-12 ft. Similar conditions will
continue across the western Gulf waters through the next 42 hours.
See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight,
then diminishing below gale force on Monday. Seas will range from
10 to 14 ft in this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Large northerly swell will combine with strong winds to produce
significant wave heights between 12-16 ft over a large area of
the Atlantic from 16N-31N between 35W-68W. Large surf, dangerous
rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the
Atlantic-facing shores of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico,
Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands, and the northeast Caribbean
passages through early Monday. The swells will gradually subside
by late Mon and early Tue. See information from your local or
national meteorological service for more specific information on
beach hazards in your area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to 02S43W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See
the section above for details.

A cold front extends across the basin from 25N84W to 25N90W to
20N96W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the front,
while moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the
front.

The cold front will move quickly SE through the remainder of the
basin through Mon. Strong north winds will prevail north of the
front, and gale winds will develop offshore areas south of
Tampico and Veracruz and continue through Mon night. Winds and
seas will diminish on Tue as high pressure builds into the Gulf.
The high will move east Wed, allowing strong S winds to develop
in the northern Gulf by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are pulsing over the south-central Caribbean off
the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell currently
affecting the NE Caribbean passages will continue through early
Monday. See the section above for details.

A stationary front extends across the far northeast portion of the
basin from 18N63W to 19N69W north of Hispaniola. Scattered showers
are noted across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.
Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds
over the south central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere. Low-topped scattered showers are noted across
the far west Caribbean waters, mainly west of 80W.

Winds will pulse to gale force along the coast of
Colombia tonight. Thereafter, the pressure gradient responsible
for the high winds will slacken, allowing winds to diminish to
strong levels into mid-week. Elsewhere, high pressure building
southwestward toward the Caribbean will result in strong
northeast to east winds over much of the central and eastern
Caribbean through tonight, before the high moves to the east and
weakens, diminishing winds across most of the area. Long-period
N swell is creating very large seas and hazardous marine
conditions across the Tropical North Atlantic forecast zones.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the swell event over the
western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N34W to 22N40W to 18N53W, then stalls
from that point to 18N63W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity
of the front. A 1026 mb high is centered near Bermuda and
extending over the west Atlantic in the wake of the front. In the
far eastern Atlantic, an upper-level trough is inducing scattered
showers north of 25N and east of 25W. Strong NE winds cover much
of Atlantic to the NE of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands as
well as the Caribbean passages.

Large seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually
subside from W to E through Mon. A strong cold front will move
off the SE U.S. early tonight. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon evening, then become stationary
from east of Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Tue and gradually
weaken through Thu. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of this
cold front and associated low pressure expected to develop Tue and
Tue night will bring strong to near gale-force northerly winds
over most of the western waters north N of about 26N Tue through
Thu, with gale-force winds possible over some of those waters.
Conditions will diminish over the area Thu night through Fri
night.

$$

ERA
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