[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the special features discussed below:

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends over the Gulf from Mobile Alabama to Grand
Isle Louisiana to the coast of northeast Mexico near 25N97.5W and
inland to 25N100W. Buoys and oil platforms are reporting strong N
to NE winds around 25 kt behind the front over the NW Gulf. The
front will move quickly SE through the Gulf today. N winds behind
the front will increase to gale force offshore of Tampico by
19/2100 UTC this afternoon and continue into tonight. Gales are
also forecast in the far SW Gulf off Veracruz tonight through
Monday and into Monday night. Seas of 10 to 14 ft are forecast in
the SW Gulf.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through
this morning, then pulse to gale force again tonight, diminishing
below gale force on Monday. Seas will range from 12 to 18 ft in
this area.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N38W to 26N41W to 22N46W to 19N55W.
Gale force NW winds are behind the front, north of 28N and east of
47W. Gale force SW winds are within 150 nm ahead of the front
north of 29N. An altimeter pass from 19/0400 UTC showed
significant wave heights of 20 to 25 ft from 25N-30N between 52W-
56W. Seas are forecast to range from 17 to 23 ft near and west of
the front today. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force
by late this morning for the waters south of 31N.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Very large northerly swell will combine with strong winds to
produce significant wave heights in excess of 15 ft today over a
large area of the Atlantic from 16N-31N between 35W-68W. Very
large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding
will affect the Atlantic-facing shores of the Dominican Republic,
Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands, and the northeast
Caribbean passages today through early Monday. The swells will
gradually subside late Mon and early Tue. See information from
your local or national meteorological service for more specific
information on beach hazards in your area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 00N25W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm of the ITCZ between 13W-27W and between 35W-42W. Isolated
moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and southwest
Gulf of Mexico, with gale conditions forecast to begin late this
afternoon. See section above for details.

A cold front extends over the Gulf from Mobile Alabama to Grand
Isle Louisiana to the coast of northeast Mexico near 25N97.5W and
inland to 25N100W. A surface trough is over the eastern Gulf from
Tallahassee to 22N88W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms
cover the basin north of a line from 21N97W to 26N89W to 26N84W to
Tampa Bay. However, skies are clearing in the NW corner of the
basin, NW of a line from Morgan City Louisiana to Brownsville
Texas. Gentle winds cover much of the basin ahead of the front,
except for the SE Gulf and Florida Straits, where moderate to
fresh SE winds prevail.

The cold front will move quickly SE through the Gulf today, and
stretch from near Fort Myers Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by
this evening, then move SE of the Gulf Mon. Strong N winds follow
the front, and gales will develop offshore areas south of Tampico
this evening, then offshore Veracruz starting overnight and
continuing into Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish Tue and
Tue night as high pressure builds into the Gulf. This high will
move east Wed, allowing strong S winds to develop in the NW Gulf
Wed and Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off
the coast of Colombia. Also, very large northerly swell currently
affecting the NE Caribbean passages will continue through early
Monday. See the sections above for details.

A stationary front extends from 18.5N60W to 19N67W to 21N77W.
Isolated showers are over the Greater Antilles near the front.
Mid-level ridging is keeping relatively dry air across much of the
Caribbean basin. Cloudiness and a few showers are seen well south
of Puerto Rico and also near Honduras. The latest ASCAT pass
shows strong to near gale force winds from 10N-22N between 67W-
80W. 30 kt winds are in the Windward and Mona Passages as well as
the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trades cover the remainder of the
Caribbean.

Winds will diminish to slightly below gale force this afternoon
off the coast of Colombia, before winds pulse back to gale force
tonight. Thereafter the pressure gradient responsible for the
high winds will lessen some, allowing winds to decrease to strong
levels into mid-week. High pressure building SW toward the
Caribbean will result in strong E and NE winds over much of the
central and eastern Caribbean through tonight, before the high
moves to the east and weakens, leading to lesser winds for most of
the area. Long period N swell has arrived to the Antilles, and
this is creating very large seas and hazardous marine conditions
for the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical North Atlantic waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic from 28N-31N
between 35W-47W. Refer to the section above for details.

A cold front extends from 32N38W to 26N41W to 22N46W to 19N55W to
18.5N60W, then continues as a stationary front to 19N67W to
21N77W. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection is along and within 120 nm east of the front,
north of 23N and east of 40W. Isolated showers are along the
remainder of the front. A 1029 mb high is centered near Bermuda.
A frontal trough over the southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico is
approaching the Atlantic. This approaching system is inducing
scattered showers off the north Florida and Georgia coasts, mainly
NW of a line from 29N81W to 32N76W. In the far eastern Atlantic,
an upper-level trough is inducing scattered showers from 18N-28N
between 15W-24W. Strong NE winds cover much of Atlantic to the NE
of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands as well as the Caribbean
passages.

The strong winds occurring over the far southern waters south of a
line from 25N65W to 22N76W will diminish today. Very large seas
in N to NE swell will continue into Mon, resulting in large
breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions on Atlantic beaches
of the Greater Antilles and Turks and Caicos Islands. A cold front
will move off the SE U.S. coast today, reach a line from Bermuda
to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by late Mon, then stall
from east of Bermuda through the Turks and Caicos Islands and
through the Windward Passage on Tue. A reinforcing surge of high
pressure building down the east coast of the U.S. in the wake of
this cold front will bring strong to near gale force N winds over
waters N of 25N Tue through Thu. Gales appear likely Tue night N
of 28N and W of 77W.

$$
Hagen
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