[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the special features discussed below:

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through
this morning, then pulse to gale force again tonight, diminishing
below gale force on Monday. Seas will range from 11 to 17 ft in
this area.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N40W to 26N44W to 22N49W to 19N58W to
19N70W. ASCAT passes that occurred between 18/2232 and 19/0016
UTC show gale-force NW to N winds behind the front, north of 26N
between the front and 54W. Gale force SW winds are within 150 nm
ahead of the front north of 28N. An altimeter pass from 18/1801
UTC showed significant wave heights of 21 to 24 ft from 26N-30N
between 54W-57W. Seas are forecast to range from 19 to 27 ft west
of the front, and 14 to 18 ft east of the front. Winds are
forecast to diminish to below gale force by late this afternoon.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends over the NW Gulf from Morgan City Louisiana
to Brownsville Texas. An ASCAT pass from 19/0310 UTC indicates
fresh N winds have developed north of the front, south of 28N and
west of 93W. The front will move eastward across the Gulf today
into Mon. N winds behind the front will increase to gale force
offshore of Tampico by late this afternoon and continue into
tonight. Gales are also forecast in the far SW Gulf off Veracruz
tonight through Monday and into Monday evening. Seas of 10 to 14
ft are forecast in the SW Gulf.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Very large northerly swell will combine with strong winds to
produce significant wave heights in excess of 15 ft today over a
large area of the Atlantic from 15N-31N between 35W-71W. Very
large swell will affect the Atlantic-facing shores of the
Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands,
and the northeast Caribbean passages today through early Monday,
gradually subsiding late Mon and early Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 00N27W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and southwest
Gulf of Mexico, with gale conditions forecast to begin late this
afternoon. See section above for details.

A cold front extends over the NW Gulf from Morgan City Louisiana
to Brownsville Texas. Scattered moderate convection is seen over
the western portion of the basin, west of a line from Fort Walton
Beach Florida near 30N87W to 24N94W to 20N97W. Additional
scattered moderate convection is well ahead of the front, over the
NE Gulf of Mexico, north of 27N and east of 88W. The latest ASCAT
data suggests a pre-frontal trough is causing enhanced low-level
convergence in the NE Gulf well ahead of the front, enhancing the
convection in the area. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are still
seen over portions of the SE Gulf south of 28N and east of 87W,
with fresh to strong E winds in the Florida Straits. Gentle winds
are over the SW Gulf ahead of the front.

The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico
Mexico later this morning and from the Straits of Florida to the
Bay of Campeche by early Mon. Strong northerly winds will follow
the front, with gale conditions expected offshore Tampico and
Veracruz late today through late Mon. The front will move
southeast of the area Mon night, allowing winds and seas to
diminish across much of the Gulf Tue into Wed as high pressure
builds across the area. Strong southerly winds will develop in the
far western Gulf beginning Tue night and Wed. These winds will
shift across the western Gulf Thu and Thu night as a trough
approaches the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off
the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell is expected for
the northeast Caribbean passages today. See the sections above
for details.

A cold front extends from 19N60W to 19N70W, then continues as a
stationary front along the N coasts of Hispaniola and Cuba to
23N80W. Isolated showers are over the Greater Antilles near the
front. Mid-level ridging is keeping relatively dry air across
much of the Caribbean basin. Cloudiness and a few showers are seen
well south of Puerto Rico and also near Honduras. The latest ASCAT
pass shows strong to near gale force winds from 10N-22N between
67W-80W. 30 kt winds are in the Windward and Mona Passages as well
as the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trades cover the remainder of the
Caribbean.

Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through
this morning, then pulse to gale force again tonight. Strong
winds will continue across much of the Caribbean today as the
front stalls over the Greater Antilles and high pressure builds
in the SW N Atlantic. Long period N swell will produce very large
seas and hazardous marine conditions across the Tropical N
Atlantic waters now through Mon night. Winds and seas will
diminish over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon through Wed. A
cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Mon night, bringing
fresh to strong north winds to the waters W of 80W through Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic from 26N-31N
between 35W-54W. Refer to the section above for details.

A cold front extends from 32N40W to 26N44W to 22N49W to 19N58W to
19N70W, then continues as a stationary front along the N coasts of
Hispaniola and Cuba to 23N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along and within 120 nm east of the front,
north of 24N. Isolated showers are along the remainder of the
front. High pressure has built in behind the front over the west
Atlantic, with a 1031 mb high centered near Bermuda. An upper-
level trough over the far eastern Atlantic is inducing scattered
showers from 17N-28N between 16W-26W. The latest ASCAT pass shows
strong NE winds covering much of Atlantic south of 25N, from the
SE Bahamas to the NE Caribbean and eastward to the central
Atlantic cold front.

The front from 19N65W to 23N80W will weaken this morning and
dissipate by late this afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds
will continue behind the front today. Very large seas in north to
northeast swell will continue through Mon, resulting in large
breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions along the Atlantic
beaches of the SE Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the other
eastern Caribbean islands. Another cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast later today, then pass SE across the forecast waters
through early this week. Expect increasing north to northeast
winds and building seas offshore of Florida and Georgia southward
to the northwest Bahamas late Tuesday through Wed night in the
wake of a strong cold front and possible attendant low pressure.
Gale conditions are possible north of 29N and west of 77W late Tue
into Wed.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net