[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the three special features discussed below.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The latest ASCAT pass shows gale force winds off Colombia from
10N-13N between 74W-78W. Expect gale-force winds to continue
north of Colombia today and tonight diminishing to below gale
force Sunday morning. Seas will range between 11-17 ft in this
area.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N49W to 25N62W to 24N70W to 24N76W,
then continues as a stationary front to the Florida Keys to the
north-central Gulf of Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass shows gale
force winds north 28N between the front and 70W. Gales are also
120-240 nm ahead of the front. Seas will range between 16-23 ft
near the front. These conditions will spread east through the next
24 hours.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf this evening and move
eastward across the Gulf Sun into Mon. Behind the front, gale
force N winds are expected in the far west-central Gulf just
offshore of Tampico Sunday and Sunday night. Gales are also
forecast in the far SW Gulf off Veracruz Sunday night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from the Florida Keys
to Galveston Bay. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front east of 83W, including over the Florida Keys, with isolated
showers elsewhere along the front. A surface trough over the
western Bay of Campeche is producing showers as well. ASCAT data
depicts strong easterly winds east of 89W.

The front will weaken through today. High pressure building
behind the front will support strong easterly winds and building
seas over the NE Gulf through today. A cold front will move into
the NW Gulf this evening, extend from the Florida Big Bend to
Veracruz, Mexico on Sun, then move to southeast of the area by Mon
evening. This front will be followed by strong northerly winds
over most of the Gulf, with gale force winds possible in the far
west-central Gulf Sun and Sun night and in the far SW Gulf Sun
night through Mon night. High pressure behind this front will
shift eastward through Wed night allowing for strong return
southerly flow and building seas to develop over the far western
Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off
the coast of Colombia. See the section above for details.

Strong to near gale tradewinds prevail across the remainder of
the basin west of 70W. Moderate trades are east of 70W. Isolated
to scattered light to moderate showers prevail over portions of
Central America and the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are
seen near Hispaniola with some of this activity reaching the
adjacent waters.

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered
along the eastern U.S. and low pressure over northwestern Colombia
will continue to support gales off the coast of Colombia through
Sun morning, with gale force winds likely to pulse again Sun
night. Strong winds will develop in the northeastern Caribbean
this evening through Sun night as the front becomes stationary
over the forecast waters. Winds and seas will diminish across much
of the area early next week. Another cold front may bring strong
northerly winds to the northwest Caribbean Mon night through Tue
night. This front is expected to become stationary from near
Windward Passage to the southwest Caribbean on Wed and Wed night
and weaken.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for details.

A cold front extends from 32N49W to 25N62W to 24N70W to 24N76W, then
continues as a stationary front to the Florida Keys. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 28N between 42W-49W. Surface
ridging is over the east Atlantic.

The Atlantic cold front will become stationary across the Greater
Antilles this evening into Sun. Strong northerly winds are
expected behind the front through tonight, while large seas in
northerly swell will persist through Mon night. Another cold front
is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun and move
across the offshore waters through Tue night and reach the far
southeast waters by Wed night. Strong to near gale force northerly
winds and building seas will follow in behind this front over the
northwest waters early next week, then mainly strong north to
northeast over the remainder of the waters through Wed night.

$$
Hagen
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