[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Expect gale-force winds to continue north of Colombia by tonight
and continue through the next 48 hours mainly from 11N-13N
between 74W-77W. Seas will range between 10-17 ft in this area.
See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N67W to 25N80W. Gale force
winds are noted north of 29N and within 480 nm on either sides of
the front. Seas will range between 10-16 ft east of the front, and
from 14-21 ft west of the front. These conditions will spread
east through the next 24 hours with the front. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S46W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm north of the
ITCZ between 30W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from 25N81W to 29N95W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A small area of
scattered showers has developed over the Bay of Campeche south of
23N and west of 94W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
easterly winds across the basin.

The front is expected to weaken through Sat. High pressure
building behind the front will support strong easterly winds and
building seas over the NE Gulf tonight through Sat. The next cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Sat evening, extend from the
Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico on Sun, then move to
southeast of the area by Mon evening. This front will be followed
by strong northerly winds over most of the Gulf, with near gale-
force winds possible in the far SW Gulf Sun night through Mon
night. High pressure behind this front will shift eastward through
mid-week allowing for strong return southerly flow and building
seas to develop over the far western Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean,
mainly north of the coast of Colombia. See the section above for
details.

Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail across the remainder of the
basin, as noted in scatterometer data. Scattered showers prevail
over portions of Central America, with some of this activity
reaching the adjacent waters.

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure
centered along the eastern U.S. and low pressure over northwestern
Colombia will continue to support gales off the coast of Colombia
through Sun morning, with gale force winds likely to pulse again
Sun night. Strong winds will develop in the northeastern
Caribbean Sat evening through Sun night as the front becomes
stationary over the forecast waters. Winds and seas will diminish
across much of the area early next week. The next cold front may
bring strong northerly winds to the northwest Caribbean Mon night
through Tue night. This front is expected to become stationary
from near Windward Passage to the southwest Caribbean on Wed and
Wed night and weaken.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for details.

A cold front is over the western half of the basin from 31N54W to
25N67W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front mainly north of 27N. Surface ridging is over the east
Atlantic, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 34N11W.

The current cold front will reach from the central Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida tonight, then become stationary from near the
Greater Antilles Sat evening into Sun. Strong northerly winds are
expected behind the front through Sat night, while large seas in
northerly swell will persist through Mon night. Another cold front
is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun and move
across the offshore waters through Tue night and reach the far
southeast waters by Wed night. Strong to near gale force northerly
winds and building seas will follow in behind this front over the
northwest waters early next week, then mainly strong north to
northeast over the remainder of the waters through mid-week.

$$

ERA
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