[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force E winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 22
feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to
15N between 73W and 79W. Gale-force NE to E winds are forecast to
continue until at least Monday night, with sea heights ranging
from 15 feet to 20 feet. See latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong high pressure in
the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong to
near gale-force easterly winds, and large sea heights, covering
from the Caribbean Sea northward, between 35W and the Bahamas.
Windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward
Islands will experience large and battering waves through early
next week. The sea heights will be reaching 17 feet, particularly
to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the Leeward Islands,
in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland across Africa. The ITCZ begins
near the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and continues to 00N33W to
00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is along and 180 nm SE of
the ITCZ, and from the Equator to 04N between 25W-36W. A few
showers are also present near the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1200 UTC this morning, the front began to stall across the
Gulf waters extending from the FL Panhandle near Apalachicola to
24N89W and continues to 18N93W in the Central Bay of Campeche.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen in satellite
imagery from 25N-27N between 85W- 89W. Scattered showers are seen
along the Southern coast of Texas and offshore waters  out to 180
nm E.

A stationary front will weaken through this afternoon, with the
frontal remnants slowly lifting northwestward tonight. Strong
northerly winds west of the front near Veracruz, Mexico will
diminish to fresh speeds by this evening and to gentle to moderate
speeds by late tonight. Atlantic high pressure will build
westward across the northern Gulf Mon through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features above for additional information on the
Gale Warnings in the Caribbean Sea.

Upper levels continue to show an upper trough across the Florida
Straits extending into NW Cuba and the SW Caribbean Sea. At the
surface, a broad strong high pressure is strengthening pressure
gradient across the Caribbean basin allowing for easterly trades
to remain fresh to strong across the eastern, central and SW
Caribbean. Currently, no significant activity is observed across
the basin with the exception of isolated showers streaming across
the central Caribbean. ASCAT indicates fresh to strong across the
basin.

Strong high pressure centered north of the area will maintain
gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night.
Winds may pulse to gale force again off the coast of Colombia on
Wed night. Elsewhere, strong to near gale force winds will persist
across the forecast waters through Tue, then gradually diminish
as high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic. Large seas in
long-period NE swell will continue across the region through
midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated upper level trough passes through 30N34W westward to
22N48W to 23N61W. At the surface, the stationary front is gradually
weakening extending to 28N36W, then a shear line continues through
21N69W. ASCAT shows E to NE 25 to 30 knot winds on the northern
side of the shear line to 25N and 15 to 20 knot north of 25N. A
few showers are along and S of the shear line. A broad 1042 mb
high pressure centered near 34N51W dominates the weather pattern
across the basin.

Strong high pressure across the western and central Atlantic will
maintain strong trades across the waters S of 27N through Tue,
with near gale force winds expected near the Approaches to the
Windward Passage. Large seas in long-period NE swell will continue
over much of the region through Wed. Winds will diminish midweek
as high pressure weakens over the SW N Atlantic. A cold front is
expected to move into the northern waters late Thu night.

$$
Torres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net