[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force E winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet
to 20 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 14N between 73W and 79W. Expect gale-force NE to E
winds in more or less the same areas until at least Monday
night, with sea heights ranging from 15 feet to 20 feet. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the
latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL AND HIGH SEAS...

The surface pressure gradient, with the strong high pressure in
the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to a continuation of strong to
near gale-force easterly winds, and large sea heights, covering
from the Caribbean Sea northward, between 35W and the Bahamas.
Windward facing islands from the central Bahamas to the Leeward
Islands will experience large and battering waves through early
next week. The sea heights will be reaching 17 feet,
particularly to the north of Puerto Rico and to the north of the
Leeward Islands, in E to SE swell.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N,
to the coast of Liberia near 06N10W. The ITCZ continues from
06N10W to 06N15W, to 01N24W, 01N35W, to the Equator along 40W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 150 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 30W and 35W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 14W and 21W, and within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 25W and 30W. Isolated moderate is to the south of the
ITCZ between 10W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the south
central Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. A dissipating second cold front is about 220 nm
to the NW of the first cold front. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 60 nm on either
side of the cold front from 24N to 27N, and from 23N southward
between 91W and 95W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the
NW of the first cold front.

The current cold front will stall today, then weaken and move
toward the NW slowly, tonight. Strong northerly winds west of
the front near Veracruz, Mexico will diminish later today into
tonight. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will build westward across
the northern Gulf of Mexico from Monday through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from NW Cuba, into the west central
Caribbean Sea, to the northern coast of Colombia. Precipitation:
isolated moderate in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, nearly everywhere, except from 17N northward from 80W
westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate, in broken to
overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, that is to
the north of the line 15N83W 14N74W 12N71W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 11/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.42 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao.

Strong high pressure, that is centered to the north of the area,
will maintain gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea through Tuesday night. It is possible that the wind speeds
may pulse to gale-force, again, off the coast of Colombia, on
Wednesday night. Strong to near gale-force winds will persist in
the forecast waters through Tuesday. The wind speeds will
diminish gradually, as high pressure weakens in the SW N
Atlantic Ocean. Large sea heights in NE swell will continue
in the region through the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N35W to 28N40W to 22N57W
and 22N61W. A stationary front passes through 32N30W to 29N37W.
A shear line continues from 29N37W to 24N50W 21N60W 21N66W, and
21N69W. NE 30 knot winds are on the northern side of the shear
line. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm on either
side of the front/shear line from 62W eastward.

A 1040 mb high pressure center is near 35N52W, about 650 nm to
the ENE of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean to the north and northwest of the stationary
front/shear line.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
20N northward between 20W and 50W. This wind flow is related to
an upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 32N27W,
and a trough that extends southwestward from the cyclonic
center. This trough is just to the east of the upper level
trough that has been supporting the stationary front and shear
line. Broken to overcast multilayered moisture is spiraling away
from the upper level cyclonic center, and it is within 360 nm to
the NE of the center, and within 540 nm to the SE of the center.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N northward 20W and 36W.

Strong high pressure in the western and central Atlantic Ocean
will maintain strong trade winds in the waters that are to the
south of 27N through Tuesday. Near gale-force winds are expected
near the Approaches to the Windward Passage. Large sea heights
in NE swell will continue in much of the region through
Wednesday. The wind speeds will diminish during the middle of
the week as the high pressure weakens in the SW N Atlantic
Ocean. A cold front is expected to move into the northern waters
on Thursday night.

$$
mt
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