[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1209 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Strong high pressure will continue building over the western
Atlantic off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast through Friday,
resulting in strengthening trades over the Caribbean. Gale-force
winds are underway south of 12N between 74W-76W. This area of
gale-force winds is expected to expand tonight and continue
through at least the next 48 hours. The winds will cause seas to
range from 8 to 14 ft through Friday, and 8 to 16 ft by Saturday.
See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 01N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N23W to the coast of Brazil
near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the
monsoon trough from 00N-06N between 14W-18W. There is also
scattered moderate convection near the ITCZ and Brazil coast from
06S-01S between 34W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1041 mb
high centered over the Mid-Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data
depicts strong easterly winds are seen across the eastern Gulf
with moderate to fresh easterly winds prevailing across much of
the area.

High pressure in the SE United States will shift eastward into
the western Atlantic Ocean through Friday. A strong cold front
will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. The front
will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche
Saturday night. The cold front will stall, and drift northward,
from Sunday through Monday. Gale-force NW winds are possible near
the coast of Veracruz Mexico on Saturday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south central Caribbean.

A surface trough is seen along the coasts of the eastern Yucatan
and Belize from 16N90W to 21N87W. Another trough is noted off the
coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua from 12N82W to 17N84W. This
trough has scattered moderate convection associated with it, from
13N-19N between 81W-85W. In the eastern Caribbean, upper level
ridging dominates the region inhibiting deep convection. However,
scattered showers are seen moving across the Lesser Antilles
through the Dominican Republic. The latest scatterometer data
depicts strong trades the eastern, central, and southwest
Caribbean. Near gale-force winds are noted through the SW
Caribbean with gale- force winds just north of Colombia. Fresh to
strong winds are noted in the northwest Caribbean.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Friday,
and it will remain in the western and central Atlantic Ocean
through Monday night. Strong trade winds and building seas will
prevail across the entire region through Monday night. Gale-force
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia during the entire
time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western and central Atlantic from
from 31N56W to 24N74W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N60W
to 21N71W. Another trough is noted near the northern portion of
the front from 30N54W to 29N58W. Scattered showers are within 150
nm of the front and troughs. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb centered near
36N24W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong NE winds from
22N-28N between 66W-76W. Moderate northerly winds are seen behind
the rest of the cold front. Strong ENE winds are also noted in the
eastern Atlantic off the African coast from 14N-22N between 18W-
28W.

A cold front, from 26N65W to 24N74W, will push to the
east of the area by tonight. Strong high pressure, building to the
north of the front through Friday, will remain in the western and
central Atlantic Ocean through Monday night. Expect strong winds
and building seas across the entire region. The comparatively
highest winds and seas are expected to the east of the Bahamas
through Sunday.

$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net