[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
531 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Strong high pressure will continue building over the western
Atlantic off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast through Fri, resulting
in strengthening trades over the Caribbean. Gale-force winds have
developed south of 11N between 68W-83W. These conditions will
continue through at least the next 48 hours. The winds will
cause seas to range from 9 to 12 ft today, and 12 to 14 ft by
Friday. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N10W
to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N24W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S41W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ mainly
west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb
high centered over the Carolinas. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail across much of the area, except over the Bay of
Campeche, where light to gentle winds are noted mainly south of
21N and west of 91W. A surface trough extends across the Bay of
Campeche with little to no convection at this time.

The high pressure over the SE United States will shift eastward
into over the western Atlantic through Fri. A strong cold front
will enter the NW Gulf by Sat morning, extend from the Florida
Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche on Sat night, then stall and
drift northward Sun through Mon. Gale force NW winds are possible
near the coast of Veracruz Sat afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south central Caribbean.

A surface trough is over the west Caribbean from 20N81W to
12N81W. Scattered showers are noted along this trough. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds across the western
Caribbean mainly west of 75W, while moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere. A large mid-to-upper level high centered over
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola covers most of the basin, leading to
subsidence.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Fri,
then remain over the western and central Atlantic through Mon
night. Strong trade winds and building seas will prevail across
the entire region through Mon night, with gale force winds
expected near the coast of Colombia during this time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from from 31N60W to
28N67W, then continues as a stationary front from that point to
24N75W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N57W to 24N67W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front/trough. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1035 mb centered near 34N24W.

The cold front will continue moving east while weakening. Strong
high pressure building north of the front through Fri will remain
over the western and central Atlantic through Mon night, resulting
in a large area of strong winds and building seas across the
entire region. Highest winds and seas are expected east of the
Bahamas through Sun.

$$

ERA
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