[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Strong high pressure will build over the western Atlantic
resulting in strengthening trades over the Caribbean Sea by this
evening. Nocturnal gale-force winds are expected each night off
the coast of Colombia beginning Wednesday night through at least
Sunday night. The winds will cause seas to range from 8 to 12 ft.
See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 02N27W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 6N-2S between
10W-22W, and from 0N-4N between 27W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from south Florida near 27N80W to the south
central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W. A stationary front continues
to Mexico near 24N98W. The front is now void of precipitation.
Broken to overcast low clouds are over the western Bay of
Campeche. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
northerly winds behind the front, while moderate winds are
elsewhere. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
W Gulf with axis along 95W. Strong subsidence covers the entire
Gulf.

The frontal system will stall and weaken along 24N this evening.
High pressure north of the front will shift eastward through Fri
night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Friday night.
The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the NW
Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. Gale force NW winds are
possible near the coast of Veracruz Sat afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from 16N73W to
07N76W. Scattered showers are over the central Caribbean from
13N-18N between 73W-79W. Scattered showers are also over Central
America from Belize to Panama, to include the Gulf of Honduras
and the coast of Costa Rica. Radar imagery also shows scattered
showers over Puerto Rico. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the
Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.
In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over
Puerto Rico. Strong subsidence covers the Caribbean and Central
America.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Friday.
Expect strong tradewinds and building seas across the entire
region. Gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
from tonight through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to S Florida near
27N80W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N63W to the S Bahamas
near 20N73W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the trough. A
1034 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 35N41W. Another
1034 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 35N23W. Surface ridging
is over the central and eastern Atlantic N of 20N.

The W Atlantic cold front will extend from 31N58W to 26N64W to
24N78W tonight, and then to 31N55W to 27N60W to 22N77W on
Thursday. Strong high pressure building N of 30N, from tonight
through Friday night, will produce a large area of strong winds
and building seas across the W Atlantic. The comparatively
higher winds and seas are expected to the east of the Bahamas,
from Thursday through Saturday.

$$
Formosa
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