[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic, resulting in strengthening trades over the
Caribbean Sea by this evening. Nocturnal gale-force winds are
expected each night off the coast of Colombia beginning Wednesday
night through at least Sunday night. The winds will cause seas to
range from 8 to 11 ft. See the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
within 180 nm of the boundaries between 10W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from 26N82W to 24N90W to
24N98W. Showers are noted along the front. The latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the cold
front, while moderate winds are prevail elsewhere.

The cold front will stall and weaken along 24N today. High pressure
north of the front will shift eastward through Fri night. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Sat, and extend from
the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Sat night. Gale force
NW winds are possible near the coast of Veracruz on Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

Mid and upper-level ridging prevails over the basin, which is
leading to dry weather across much of the basin. A surface trough
is analyzed south of Hispaniola from 17N72W to 13N72W with
scattered showers. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh
easterly winds north of Colombia and over the Gulf of Honduras,
while moderate winds across the remainder of the basin.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Fri,
resulting in strong trade winds and building seas across the
entire region. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia Wed night through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the west Atlantic from 31N75W to 28N80W.
To the east, a stationary front extends across the central
Atlantic from 31N51W to 29N64W, then a surface trough extends
from that point to 22N73W. Showers are noted along and north of
the front/trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 35N20W.

The cold front will extend from 31N70W to south Florida this
afternoon, and become stationary on Thu. Strong high pressure
building N of 30N tonight through Fri night will produce a large
area of strong winds and building seas across the entire region,
with highest winds and seas expected east of the Bahamas Thu
through Sat.

$$

ERA
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