[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic, resulting in strengthening trades over the
Caribbean Sea by Wednesday evening. Nocturnal gale force winds
are expected each night off the coast of Colombia beginning
Wednesday night through at least Sunday night. The winds will
cause seas to range from 8 to 13 ft. See the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N24W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from 29N83W to 25N97W. A
pre-frontal trough extends from 27N81W to 26N84W. Showers are
noted along these features. The latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the cold front, while
gentle to moderate winds are prevail elsewhere.

The cold front will stall and weaken along 24N on Wed. High
pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front
through Fri before retreating E. This will allow the next cold
front to enter the NW Gulf Sat. Gale force NW winds will be
possible near Veracruz Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

Mid and upper-level ridging prevails over the basin, which is
leading to dry weather across much of the basin. A surface trough
is analyzed from 20N77W to 16N87W. To the east, a cluster of
showers is moving westward across the central Caribbean between
70W-75W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly
winds north of Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds across the
eastern, central, and western Caribbean. Light winds prevail in
the NW Caribbean.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Fri,
resulting in strong trade winds and building seas across the
entire region. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia Wed night through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from
31N47W to 28N57W, then becomes a weakening warm front to 21N75W.
Showers are noted along and north of these front. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 29N47W to 27N51W. A large upper-level
low is spreading abundant upper-level moisture from 14N-25N
between 20W-30W.

High pressure across the northern waters will shift E
ahead of a cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast. The front will
extend from 31N70W to southern Florida Wed, and become stationary
on Thu. Strong high pressure building N of 30N Wed night through
Fri night will produce a large area of strong winds and building
seas across the entire region, with highest winds and seas
expected east of the Bahamas Thu through Sat.

$$

ERA
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