[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic, resulting in strengthening trades over the
Caribbean Sea by Wednesday evening. Nocturnal gale force winds
are expected each night off the coast of Colombia beginning
Wednesday night and lasting through at least Sunday night. The
winds will cause high seas in the area, ranging from 8 to 13 ft.
See the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01N31W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along
and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-36W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 13W-22W. In the far
eastern Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05S-
03S E of 11W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 07/2100 UTC, the cold front enters the northeastern Gulf off
the Florida Panhandle coast near 30N84W and extends southwest to
27N89W to the coast of Mexico near 25N97W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 29N83W to 26N88W. Showers are seen along these
features. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
northerly winds behind the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds
are seen elsewhere across the basin.

The cold front will stall and weaken along 24N by Wednesday. High
pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front through
Friday before retreating east. This will allow the next cold
front to enter the NW Gulf Saturday. Gale force NW winds will be
possible near Veracruz Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid and upper-level ridging prevails over the Caribbean, which is
leading to dry weather across much of the basin. Cloudiness is
seen and scattered showers are seen moving across Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands. Showers are also moving across Hispaniola. The
latest scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds north of
Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds across the eastern,
central, and western Caribbean. Light winds are seen in the NW
Caribbean.

Strong high pressure will build north of the area through Friday,
resulting in strong trade winds and building seas across the
entire region. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia from Wednesday night through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from
31N47W to 27N58W to 23N71W. The tail-end of the front has begun to
weaken, from 23N71W to 20N75W. Showers are seen north of this
front. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N45W to 27N52W.
There are two other troughs noted in the central Atlantic: the
first is analyzed from 28N44W to 22N48W, and the other from 21N52W
to 17N54W. No significant convection is associated with these
features. A large upper-level low is spreading abundant upper-
level moisture from 14N-28N between 20W-30W.

High pressure across the northern waters will shift eastward
today ahead of a cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast. The
front will extend from 31N70W to southern Florida by Wednesday,
and become stationary on Thursday. Strong high pressure building
north of 30N from Wednesday night through Friday night will
produce a large area of strong winds and building seas across the
entire region, with highest winds and seas expected east of the
Bahamas Thursday through Saturday.

$$
AKR
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