[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 01N, to
02N10W and 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 04N18W 03N25W
02N30W 01N32W 01N35W, to the Equator along 39W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 07W and 35W, and to
the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 07W westward. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere from 05N southward from 35W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows westerly and
anticyclonic wind flow, across the Gulf of Mexico. The
anticyclonic wind flow is moving around an anticyclonic
circulation center that ranges in position from the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico at 500 mb to the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico at 700 mb. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an
anticyclonic circulation center in the central Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida, to the
coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a SW Gulf of Mexico
1015 mb low pressure center that is near 21N96W. The stationary
front continues from the 21N96W low pressure center to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow is
pushing high level moisture from Mexico across the entire Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N
southward, and from 26N northward from 88W eastward.

The current stationary front, with a SW Gulf of Mexico low
pressure center, will move northward, into Texas today. The
front will move through the western Gulf of Mexico as a warm
front. The trailing end of the front will emerge off the Texas
coast as a cold front late Thursday, and reach from the western
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by late Friday. A
reinforcing cold front will follow into the northwest Gulf of
Mexico from Thursday night into Friday morning, reaching from
southeast Louisiana to northeast Mexico by late Friday. Both
fronts will move east of the Gulf by late Saturday. Expect
increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf of Mexico,
both ahead of, and behind, these fronts, as they move across the
Gulf waters. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish
through Sunday, as high pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico
in the wake of the second front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 700 mb, shows an inverted trough, extending
from the N coast of Colombia, to the coast of Cuba along 80W.
The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center
in the central Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 12N southward between 75W and 80W.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain fresh
to occasionally strong trade winds off Colombia through the
weekend. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into
the NW Caribbean Saturday. The cold front will be followed by
increased wind speeds and sea heights. The cold front is forecast
to reach from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua by Sunday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N69W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 24N76W in the Bahamas, passing just to the
south of Andros Island in the Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida
near 23.5N81W. The front becomes stationary in the Straits of
Florida, and it continues toward the southwest, into the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24N northward
between 66W and 76W.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N35W to
30N42W, to 31N51W. The front becomes stationary at 31N51W, and it
continues beyond 32N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the south and southeast of
the front, from 28N northward and from 41W toward the east and
NE; within 120 nm to the north of the cold front from 44W
eastward; and from 30N northward between 50W and 56W.

An upper level trough is in the eastern sections of the Atlantic
Ocean, along 32N28W 22N33W 13N41W. A surface trough is along
38W/39W from 19N to 25N. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will reach from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas late today. The front will
stall and weaken along roughly 25N by Thursday afternoon, and
then dissipate on Friday. A new and stronger cold front is
forecast to move off the NE Florida coast by late Friday into
early Saturday. The front will be followed closely by a reinforcing
front by early Saturday afternoon. The fronts will merge and
reach from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds
to gale force are possible both ahead of and behind the cold
fronts, from Saturday into Sunday, in the waters that are to the
north of 28N.

$$
MT
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