[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N16W to 03N26W 02N35W, crossing the Equator along
39W, to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong to the south and east of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 210 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
on the northern side between 20W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows westerly and
anticyclonic wind flow, across the Gulf of Mexico. The
anticyclonic wind flow is moving around an anticyclonic
circulation center that ranges in position from the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico at 500 mb to the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico at 700 mb. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an
anticyclonic circulation center in the central Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida, to the
coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a SW Gulf of Mexico
1014 mb low pressure center that is near 21N96W. The stationary
front continues from the 21N96W low pressure center to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow is
pushing high level moisture from Mexico across the entire Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N
southward, and from 26N northward from 87W eastward.

The current stationary front, with a SW Gulf of Mexico low
pressure center, will move northward tomorrow on Wednesday.
The frontal boundary will dissipate in the northwest Gulf by Thu.
A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu night. This
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche by Fri afternoon, and push south and east of the Gulf Sat
afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the
Gulf both ahead of, and behind, the front as it moves across the
Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model, for 700 mb, shows an inverted trough, extending
from the N coast of Colombia, to the coast of Cuba along 80W.
The GFS model for 250 mb shows an anticyclonic circulation center
in the central Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 13N southward between 74W and 80W.

The Bermuda High north of the area will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trades off Colombia through the weekend.
A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel into the NW
Caribbean Sat, with an increase in winds and seas behind the
front. The front should reach from E Cuba to Nicaragua by Sun
afternoon. No significant long-period swell should impact the
waters for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N69W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 28N73W, across Andros Island in the Bahamas, to
the Straits of Florida near 23.5N81.5W. The front becomes
stationary in the Straits of Florida, and it continues toward the
southwest, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the
northwest of the line 30N54W 27N66W 23N77W, within 300 nm to the
north on the eastern end of the line, and within 90 nm to the
north of the line on the western end of the line.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N37W to
31N44W, to 31N50W. The front becomes stationary at 31N50W, and it
continues beyond 32N54W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible
from 30N northward between 30W and 55W. High level clouds cover
the area from 15N northward between 30W and 55W.

An upper level trough is in the eastern sections of the Atlantic
Ocean, along 32N28W 22N33W 13N41W. A surface trough is along
27N36W 23N38W 19N38W. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will reach from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Wed afternoon. The front
will stall and weaken along roughly 25N by Thu afternoon, and then
dissipate Fri. A new, stronger, cold front is forecast to move
off the NE Florida coast by late Fri, reach the NW Bahamas by Sat
afternoon, and extend from near Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun
afternoon.

$$
MT
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