[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday night
across northern Honduras in association with a cold front.
Persistent heavy rainfall could lead to flash floods and
mudslides. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or
national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N28W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection is from 07S-04N between 21W-35W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 04S-01N between 35W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored
by a pair of 1028 mb highs over central Louisiana and just
offshore the coast of Matagorda Bay Texas, respectively. The
latest set of ASCAT passes from late Thursday evening reveal
gentle and moderate winds over most of the northern and central
Gulf of Mexico. However, fresh northerlies still occupy southern
areas from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel and to the
eastern Bay of Campeche.

Tranquil conditions will prevail today in the Gulf of Mexico. A
weak reinforcing cold front or trough will sweep through the NE
Gulf tonight, supporting fresh NW winds into Sat morning. High
pressure will shift east of the Gulf Sun, with fresh return flow
increasing to strong over much of the Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from E Cuba near 21N77W to Grand Cayman to
the north-central coast of Honduras. Scattered showers are over
portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea along and north of the
front, including the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras. The
latest ASCAT pass from late Thursday evening reveals strong N
winds are located to the NW of the front, covering the NW
Caribbean, west of a line from 22N80W to 16N85.5W. A westward-
moving surface trough is along 80W from 12N-18N with scattered
showers along the axis. Drier air is over the eastern and central
Caribbean due to mid-level ridging over the area. Gentle to
moderate trades prevail there, except for strong near the coast of
N Colombia.

The cold front extending from E Cuba to N Honduras will move E
through today, then stall from Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua-
Costa Rica border this weekend, and dissipate by early next week.
Fresh to strong N winds will prevail behind the front as high
pressure builds into the region, strongest near the coast of
Central America. NE winds may reach near gale force in the
Windward Passage Mon. Otherwise, moderate to fresh tradewinds will
prevail east of the front through early today. Strong winds will
return to offshore Colombia waters tonight through early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N66W to the central
Bahamas near 23N74.5W to E Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers are
possible within 90 nm of the front. A 1024 mb high is centered
over the central Atlantic near 33N50W. A surface trough is along
40W from 19N-24N. Isolated showers are within 90 nm of the trough.
An upper-level trough axis is over the E Atlantic from 32N32W to
15N48W. An upper low within this trough is near 22N-28N between
33W-40W. The upper trough is enhancing scattered thunderstorms
within 120 nm either side of a line extending from 15N36W to
19N32W to 26N27W.

The cold front from 32N66W to east-central Cuba will continue
moving E across the area through today. Then it will gradually
stall from 31N55W to Puerto Rico Sunday. A secondary surge of
high pressure and reinforcing cold front will sweep across
waters well east of Florida through Sat night, bringing another
round of strong W to NW winds north of 27N. Improving conditions
are expected for the start of next week.

$$
Hagen
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