[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS...

A strong cold front is moving across the NW Caribbean Sea and
has stalled in the Gulf of Honduras. Heavy rainfall has developed
ahead of the front in northern Honduras and is expected to
continue through Saturday. Persistent heavy rainfall could lead to
significant flash floods and mudslides. Locally heavy rainfall is
also expected today in north central Guatemala, the southeastern
parts of the Mexican state of Veracruz, and northern Chiapas.
Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national
meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N28W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-05S between 23W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is from
04N-05S between 30W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 27/2100 UTC, a 1029 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of
Mexico near 28N95W. 10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NW Gulf
due to the high. The surface pressure gradient remains strong
over the E Gulf, thus 15-20 kt northerly winds prevail there.
Broken to overcast stratocumulus low clouds persists over most of
the Gulf except for the NW Gulf.

Surface ridging is building across the basin in the wake of the
front that is currently moving over the W Atlantic and W
Caribbean. Hazardous seas will gradually subside from N to S
through tonight, with tranquil conditions prevailing by Fri. A
weak reinforcing cold front will sweep through the NE Gulf by Fri
night, supporting fresh NW winds. High pressure will shift east of
the Gulf Sun, with fresh return flow increasing to strong over
much of the Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from E Cuba near 22N77W to 19N94W to north
central Honduras near 15N87W. The tail end of a reinforcing cold
front is over central Cuba near 22N80W moving E. Scattered
showers are over the Gulf of Honduras and over N Honduras. 20-25
northerly winds are N of the fronts. The E Caribbean, E of 75W
has 10-15 kt tradewinds. In the upper levels, the entire Caribbean
has zonal flow and strong subsidence.

The northern portion of the initial front will move E through
Fri, then stall from Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica
border this weekend, and dissipate by early next week. Strong N
winds will prevail behind the front as high pressure builds into
the region, highest near the coast of Central America. NE winds
may reach near gale force in the Windward Passage Mon. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail east of the front
through early Fri. Strong winds will return to offshore Colombia
waters Fri night through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N69W to E Cuba near
22N77W. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N71W to central
Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
fronts. A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
33N52W. A 1015 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 22N51W. A
surface trough is further E from 27N38W to 17N42W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 15N
between 25W-45W enhancing showers.

Over the W Atlantic, a cold front will slow and gradually stall
over Hispaniola. A secondary surge of high pressure and
reinforcing cold front will sweep across the W Atlantic Fri
through Sat nights, bringing another round of strong W to NW
winds. Improving conditions are expected for the start of next
week.

$$
Formosa
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