[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The earlier cold front now is passing through the NW Bahamas,
the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, into the Gulf of
Honduras, and SE Guatemala. Expect N gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 14 feet to 21 feet, from 19N to 21N between
91W and 96W, including within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico, and
within 60 nm of Campeche in Mexico. This is based on the
forecast from 27/0600 UTC. The wind speeds are forecast to slow
down, to less than gale-force, by this morning, 27/1200 UTC.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...

The strong cold front has moved into the NW Caribbean Sea.
It is likely that heavy rainfall may affect northern sections of
Honduras, and NE Nicaragua, from Thursday through Saturday,
related to the cold front. It is possible that the heavy rain in
Honduras may lead to significant flash floods and mudslides.
Locally heavy also is forecast, through Thursday, in north
central Guatemala, in the southeastern parts of the Mexican
state of Veracruz, and in northern Chiapas. The greatest threat
for flooding is in northern Honduras, where persistent northerly
flow will bring abundant moisture. Please monitor the latest
forecasts from your local or national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, curving to 06N20W and 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W, curving to 06N24W 01N34W 02N41W, and to
the Equator along 43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong from 02S to 02N between 31W and 34W, and from the Equator
to 03N between 34W and 37W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong from 06N southward to Brazil
between 38W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the NW Bahamas, the Straits of
Florida, across NW Cuba, into the Gulf of Honduras, and SE
Guatemala. A surface ridge has developed in the coastal plains/
the coastal waters, from south Texas to Mexico, and into the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Please read the
SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about gale-force winds
in the Gulf of Mexico, related to the cold front. A second cold
front is passing through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean to Florida
near 27N82W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated moderate within 300 nm to the NW of the cold
front.

The strong cold front has moved SE of the Gulf of Mexico early
this morning. Storm-force NW winds in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico have slowed down to gale-force wind speeds. The wind
speeds will slow down more, to less than gale-force, later this
morning, as high pressure builds into the area. Hazardous seas
will subside gradually from N to S today, with tranquil
conditions by Friday. A weak reinforcing cold front will sweep
through the NE Gulf on Friday night. It is likely to bring some
fresh NW winds. High pressure will shift east of the Gulf on
Sunday, with fresh return flow increasing to strong for much of
the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge curves through Central America. It extends
from the border of Colombia and Panama, through Central America,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The ridge is
pushing upper level anticyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean
Sea.

A cold front is passing through the NW Bahamas, the Straits of
Florida, across NW Cuba, into the Gulf of Honduras, and SE
Guatemala. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 17N southward from 86W westward. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere to the west of the line that runs from
Cuba along 80W to the eastern coast of Honduras.

A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb Atlantic Ocean 18N58W
low pressure center, to the south of Guadeloupe, to 14.5N64.5W.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, to the north
and northeast of the line that runs from 15N80W to 10N67W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 27/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.31 in
Guadeloupe.

A tight surface pressure gradient will lead to periods of strong
E to NE winds off the coast of Colombia well into next week,
with near gale force winds possible when the gradient is
strongest Fri night and again early next week. A cold front that
has entered the NW Caribbean Sea early this morning will reach
from E Cuba into E Honduras by this evening, then slow and stall
this weekend from Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua Costa Rica
border, then dissipate early next week. Strong N winds are
expected behind this front as high pressure builds into the
region, highest near the coast of Central America. NE winds may
reach to near gale force speeds in the Windward Passage Mon and
Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N43W, to 30N44W, 28N47W,
23N49W, to 20N56W, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near
18N58W. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb Atlantic Ocean
low pressure center, to the south of Guadeloupe, to 14.5N64.5W.
Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm to the
east of the stationary front and within 240 nm to the west of
the stationary front, from 20N northward.

An upper level trough extends from 32N44W, to a 23N41W cyclonic
circulation center, to 17N43W, to 14N55W, to 13N64W in the SE
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence covers the area from 20N southward between 40W and
70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 21N to 25N between
38W and 45W.

A surface trough is along 38W/36W from 34N to 24N, from NE to
SW. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N northward between
30W and 40W.

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move through the area, including
the Bahamas today, reaching Bermuda by the evening, then slowing
and stalling gradually, into the weekend, in the SE waters and
Hispaniola. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds are occurring N
of 25N, and strong NW winds are occurring behind. This will
weaken tonight as the front weakens. A secondary surge of high
pressure and reinforcing cold front will likely sweep across
northern areas Fri through Sat nights, possibly bringing another
round of strong W to NW winds. Improving conditions are expected
for the start of next week.

$$
mt
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