[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

A cold front is along 30N84W 24N87W 18N94W. Expect NW-to-N gale-
force to storm-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 15 feet
to 24 feet, from 20N southward from 96W westward.  The
possibility of storm-force winds will last for the next six
hours, according the forecast from 27/0000 UTC. Expect gale-
force N winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 22 feet,
from 21N southward between 93W and 96W, for another six hours,
after 27/0000 UTC, until Thursday morning. The wind speeds are
forecast to slow down, to less than gale-force, by Thursday
morning, 27/1200 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...

The strong cold front, that now is moving across the Gulf of
Mexico, is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean tonight. It is
likely that heavy rainfall may affect northern sections of
Honduras, and NE Nicaragua, from Thursday through Saturday,
related to the cold front. It is possible that the heavy rain in
Honduras may lead to significant flash floods and mudslides.
Locally heavy also is forecast, through Thursday, in north
central Guatemala, in the southeastern parts of the Mexican
state of Veracruz, and in northern Chiapas. The greatest threat
for flooding is in northern Honduras, where persistent northerly
flow will bring abundant moisture. Please monitor the latest
forecasts from your local or national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N13W, curving to 08N16W, 03N19W, and 01N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N21W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to
01S29W, crossing the Equator again along 33W, to 03N39W, curving
to the Equator a third time along 46W, to the coast of Brazil
near 01S47W.  Precipitation: scattered strong from the Equator
to 02S between 30W and 32W, from the Equator to 05N between 32W
and 35W, and within 100 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 39W
and 46W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
07N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to
24N85W in the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the NE corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, to SW Guatemala. A surface ridge has been building in
the coastal plains/the coastal waters, from south Texas to
Mexico, and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
gale-force winds and storm-force winds in the Gulf of Mexico,
related to the cold front. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate to the west of the line that runs from
Bermuda to SE Cuba in the Atlantic Ocean; to the SE of the line
that runs from the Florida Panhandle to 20N along the coast of
Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico; and to the west
of the line that runs from NW Cuba to the western sections of
Honduras in the Caribbean Sea.

The current strong cold front will move southeastward, quickly,
to the southeast of the area by late tonight. This front will be
followed by strong high pressure, that will settle into the NW
Gulf of Mexico in its wake. The tight surface pressure gradient,
that exists between the high pressure and the front, is allowing
for gale-force winds to cover nearly the entire area of the
forecast waters. Storm-force winds are in the SW Gulf. These
conditions will diminish gradually, through Thursday night, as
the high pressure that is in the NW Gulf shifts eastward to the
NE Gulf by the weekend. Another cold front will sweep across the
NE Gulf of Mexico on Friday night and Saturday. The high
pressure will shift to east of NE Florida by Monday afternoon.
This will allow for fresh to strong return flow to develop in
the western Gulf of Mexico, beginning late on Saturday and
spreading to the central Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge curves through Central America. It extends
from the border of Colombia and Panama, through Central America,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The ridge is
pushing upper level anticyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean
Sea.

A cold front is passing through Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to
the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to SW Guatemala.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to the west
of the line that runs from NW Cuba to the western sections of
Honduras in the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb Atlantic Ocean 19N58W
low pressure center, to the south of Guadeloupe, to 14.5N64W.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, to the east of
the line that runs from 16N70W to 11N65W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 27/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.31 in
Guadeloupe.

High pressure, to the northeast of the Caribbean Sea,
interacting with low pressure that is in South America, will
maintain strong NE to E winds, that will be pulsing each night
into the start of next week off the coast of Colombia. A cold
front will move into the NW Caribbean Sea tonight. The cold
front will move southeastward and reach from eastern Cuba to
eastern Honduras by Thursday evening. The cold front gradually
will become stationary from Hispaniola to 16N78W and to Costa
Rica during the upcoming weekend, and dissipate early next week.
Fresh to strong north winds behind this front will expand in
coverage during the weekend as high pressure builds
southeastward across the NW Caribbean Sea. The winds will veer
to northeast to east on Monday and Monday night, as the high
pressure shifts eastward. It is possible that NE winds may reach
to near gale-force speeds in the Windward Passage on Monday and
Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N43W, to 30N44W, 28N47W,
23N49W, to 20N56W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near
19N58W. A surface trough extends from the 1014 mb Atlantic Ocean
low pressure center, to the south of Guadeloupe, to 14.5N64W.
Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to the
east of the stationary front and within 120 nm to the west of
the stationary front, from 20N northward.

An upper level trough 32N44W, to a 23N43W cyclonic circulation
center, to 17N43W, to 14N55W, to 13N64W in the SE corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the
area from 20N southward between 40W and 70W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from 22N to 27N between 40W and 44W.

A surface trough is along 36W/37W from 24N to 33N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from 21N northward between 30W and 40W.

A cold front extends from near 31N78W to near Vero Beach,
Florida. Strong southwest winds are ahead of the front and east
to 72W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within
120 nm east of the front. The front will reach from 31N75W to
27N77W and to western Cuba early Thursday, from just west of
Bermuda to 24N74W and to east-central Cuba early Thursday
evening, then begin to weaken as it reaches from 30N65W to
25N72W and to eastern Cuba by early Friday. Fresh to strong
northwest winds will be behind the front through Thursday night.
The front will shift to the southeast waters, slowly, during the
upcoming weekend and to east of the area from late Sunday night
into early Monday. A second and stronger cold front will sweep
across the northern and central waters this weekend, followed by
strong strong west to northwest winds and building seas. These
conditions will shift to the east of the area on Monday.

$$
mt
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