[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Caribbean Sea,
Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the three special features mentioned below.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds up to 40 kt are near the coast of Colombia.
Winds will be below gale force during the daylight hours on
Thursday. Winds are forecast to again pulse to gale force Thursday
night. The strongest winds are expected from 11N-12N between 74W-
76W. Sea heights are forecast to range from 11 to 16 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is off the N Florida coast. This front will be
nearly stationary tonight, but will move across the waters east of
northern Florida Thursday night. Near gale to gale force winds
are then expected on both sides of the cold front, mainly north
of 28N, as it moves across the western Atlantic through Friday.
Expect building seas of 10 to 14 ft across the area on Friday.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A stationary front currently extends from Pensacola to just south
of Brownsville Texas. The front will become a cold front and begin
moving on Thursday. Behind the front, gale force winds are
forecast to develop by early Friday morning prior to sunrise in
the far western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Tampico Mexico.
Gales will develop offshore of Veracruz Friday afternoon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 01N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
S of the monsoon trough from 122N-6N between 08W-20W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-08S
between 22W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Pensacola Florida to Grand Isle
Louisiana and across the northwest Gulf of Mexico to 28N94W to
south of Brownsville Texas near 26N97W and inland over northern
Mexico to 26N102W. Isolated showers are near the front. Much drier
air covers the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico due to
subsidence from a mid-level ridge that extends from the Bahamas to
the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed to
the north of the front, off the Texas and western Louisiana
coasts.

Reinforcing cold air will push the front across the remainder of
the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are expected over
the offshore waters of Tampico coast early Fri, and the offshore
waters of Veracruz Fri and Fri evening. Strong north to northeast
winds are expected elsewhere behind the front with building seas.
Seas will subside Sat and Sat night. Fresh southerly flow will set
up over the Gulf Sun night through Mon ahead of the next cold
front moving off the Texas coast Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-to upper-level ridging covers most of the Caribbean Sea from
67W westward, leading to subsidence and dry air. Scattered clouds
and isolated showers are over portions of the Caribbean east of
67W due to an upper-level trough that extends from the central
Atlantic into the far eastern Caribbean. ASCAT shows strong winds
over the central Caribbean from 10N-18N between 68W-80W, with
near gales over the south-central Caribbean from 10.5N-16N
between 73W-78W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, except pulsing to
gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Winds
and seas will diminish across the Caribbean and the Tropical N
Atlantic Thu night through Fri. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico
will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri, and move across the NW
Caribbean through Sat night with fresh to strong N winds. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh to
strong winds across the Windward passage and Cuba adjacent waters
Sun night through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 20/0300 UTC, a cold front is off the N Florida coast from
31N78W to 30N81W. A prefrontal trough extends from 30N77W to
28N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front and of the
trough. ASCAT shows strong trade winds from 10N-25N between 25W-
66W, and from 18N-32N between 05W-25W. A 1037 mb high is centered
near 40N32W. An upper-level trough axis is from 30N50W to 16N60W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds near the Windward Passage through tonight. A cold front will
move over the northwest waters tonight, then become stationary
near 28N through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold
front across the forecast area Thu night through Sat night. Near
gale to gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front
Thu night through Fri night. Afterwards, winds will gradually
diminish across the region through early Sun. Large seas over the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas will decay Mon.

$$
Formosa
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