[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Caribbean Sea,
Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the three special features mentioned below.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force winds up to 40 kt are expected tonight near the coast
of Colombia. Winds will be below gale force during the daylight
hours on Thursday. Winds are forecast to again pulse to gale force
Thursday night. The strongest winds are expected from 11N-12N
between 74W-76W. Sea heights are forecast to range from 11 to 16
ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from near Charleston South Carolina
southwestward over southern Georgia to Pensacola Florida. This
front will be nearly stationary tonight, but will move across the
waters east of northern Florida Thursday night. Near gale to gale
force winds are expected on both sides of the cold front, mainly
north of 28N, as it moves across the western Atlantic, east of
Florida and northeast of the northwest Bahamas, Thursday night
through Friday. Expect building seas of 10 to 14 ft across the
area on Friday.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A stationary front currently extends from Pensacola to just south
of Brownsville Texas. The front will become a cold front and begin
moving on Thursday. Behind the front, gale force winds are
forecast to develop by early Friday morning prior to sunrise in
the far western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Tampico Mexico.
Gales will develop offshore of Veracruz Friday afternoon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N16W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 03N23W to
01N28W to 00N38W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 12S-04N between 22W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Pensacola Florida to Grand Isle
Louisiana and across the northwest Gulf of Mexico to 28N94W to
south of Brownsville Texas near 26N97W and inland over northern
Mexico to 26N102W. Isolated showers are near the front. Much drier
air covers the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico due to
subsidence from a mid-level ridge that extends from the Bahamas to
the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed to
the north of the front, off the Texas and western Louisiana
coasts.

Reinforcing cold air will push the front across the remainder of
the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are expected off
the Tampico coast Fri morning, and the offshore waters of Veracruz
Fri afternoon and evening. Strong north to northeast winds are
expected elsewhere behind the front with building seas. Seas will
subside Sat and Sat night. Fresh southerly flow will set up over
the western Gulf Sat night through Sun night ahead of the next
cold front moving off the Texas coast late Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging covers most of the Caribbean Sea from
67W westward, leading to subsidence and dry air. Scattered clouds
and isolated showers are over portions of the Caribbean east of
67W due to an upper-level trough that extends from the central
Atlantic into the far eastern Caribbean. The ASCAT pass from late
Wednesday morning shows strong winds over the central Caribbean
from 10N-18N between 68W-80W, with near gales over the south-
central Caribbean from 10.5N-16N between 73W-78W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, except pulsing to
gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Winds
and seas will then diminish across the Caribbean through Fri
night. A front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan
Channel Fri night, and move across the NW Caribbean through Sat
night. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front and affect
the NW Caribbean during that period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 32N75W to 30N80W. Scattered showers
are north of 30N between 67W-77W. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday
morning shows strong trade winds from 10N-25N between 25W-66W,
and from 18N-32N between 05W-25W. An upper-level trough axis is
from 31N53W to 25N57W to 18N60W. Relatively dry air in the low to
mid levels is limiting significant shower activity in association
with the upper-level trough.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds near the Windward Passage through tonight. A cold front will
move offshore of Georgia tonight, then become stationary off NE
Florida through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold
front across the forecast area Thu night through Sat night. Near
gale to gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front
on Fri and Fri night, mainly north of 28N, over the western
Atlantic. Winds will gradually diminish across the region through
early Sun. Large seas over the waters north and northeast of the
Bahamas will decay Mon.

$$
Hagen
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