[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. Sea heights will reach as high as 18 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coast Liberia near 07N11W to
02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 00N27W to the coast of
Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
near the ITCZ from 04S-01N between 15W-34W. There is also
thunderstorms south of the monsoon trough from 01N-04N between
08W-12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 17/2100 UTC, a warm front was lifting north across the north
central/eastern Gulf, stretching from central Louisiana near
30N92W to the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W. There is a portion
of a stationary front off the Florida coast from 30N85W to
29N83W. Low to mid level clouds and showers are moving across the
northern half of the Gulf. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict light to moderate southerly winds are
noted across the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

The warm front over the northern Gulf will weaken and lift
northward tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue night
and slowly move southward through Wed night. A reinforcing cold
front will quickly cross the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force
conditions are possible west of this front offshore of Tampico,
Mexico Thu night, and Veracruz, Mexico Fri into Fri night.
Elsewhere, expect strengthening NE winds and building seas across
the Gulf following the second cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level ridging dominates most of the basin. Isolated
showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and the eastern half
of the Greater Antilles. Isolated showers are also seen moving
inland over the Central American countries, from the Yucatan
southward into Panama. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depict moderate to fresh trades across the basin.
Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, with seas ranging 7 to 9 ft in the
central and eastern Caribbean.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
across the central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to gale
force off the coast of Colombia each night. High pres will weaken
N of the area Thu night, helping to diminish winds Fri and Sat.
Long period N to NE swell will move across the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Mon night through Thu, then subside Fri and Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to drape across the far western
Atlantic from 31N79W to 30N81W. A 1017 mb low was analyzed at
17/2100 UTC near 30N79W. Showers are seen off the coast of
Florida. Another stationary front is analyzed from 31N61W to
27N73W. An area of high pressure is noted between these two
stationary fronts, with a 1021 mb high analyzed near 30N72W.
Showers are moving across the stationary front from 27N-31N
between 59W-69W. Two troughs are analyzed in this area: one from
25N64W to 20N69W, north of Hispaniola, and the other from 26N49W
to 19N57W. Isolated showers are seen with these features. Moderate
winds are noted in the western Atlantic with seas up to 6 ft.

A trough continues to linger off the coast of Africa, from 26N19W
to 15N19W. Showers are seen from 10N-28N and E of 20W. Seas are up
to 12 ft in the far eastern Atlantic.

High pressure will extend across the northern waters through mid
week before starting to retreat eastward. The next cold front that
will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed. This front will briefly
stall over the northern waters Wed night and Thu, then push
southward across the region Thu night through Sat night. Gale
conditions are possible W of the front across the northern waters
Thu night and Fri, with large N swell expected to impact much of
the area by Fri night.

$$
AKR
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