[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. Sea heights will reach as high as 17 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coast Liberia near 05N08W to
02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 03S35W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
north of the ITCZ from 00N to 04N between 25W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches from near Crystal River Florida to
1015 mb low pressure off Panama City Florida, then westward toward
the northern coast of Texas. Platform observations from this
morning show visibilities of 3 nm or less in fog over much of the
northwest Gulf near the front, with dense fog ongoing mainly close
to the Texas coast. Considerable low to mid level cloud cover is
observed along and north of the front, and a few showers are
noted on radar imagery over the Big Bend area of Florida, moving
onshore. Mid to high level cloudiness is moving eastward across
the northwest Gulf. Generally fair skies prevail elsewhere, with
no showers or thunderstorms. Buoy observations and scatterometer
data show moderate SE flow over the western Gulf, with gentle
breezes mainly over the eastern Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

The stationary front over the northern Gulf will weaken and lift
northward later today. A new cold front will enter the northwest
Gulf Tue night and slowly move southward through Wed night,
followed by a stronger reinforcing cold front that will quickly
cross the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible
west of this front offshore of Veracruz, Mexico Fri into Fri
night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening NE winds and building seas
across the Gulf following the second cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer satellite data and ship observations from around 14
UTC confirmed near gale force winds off the coast of Colombia. The
strongest winds are within 90 nm of the coast between Santa Marta
and Cartagena. A nearby vessel also reported seas to 13 ft,
although higher seas are likely in the area of stronger winds.
High pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to
strong trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, with
seas 5 to 8 ft. Moderate NE to E winds are evident over the
northwest Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

Regional radar shows scattered trade wind showers across the
Leeward Islands, enhanced by mid to upper level troughing over
the local area. Isolated showers are evident elsewhere across the
northern Caribbean in the trade wind flow, with drier conditions
noted farther south from the Windward Islands through the south
central Caribbean. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered
showers off the Caribbean coastlines of western Panama and Costa
Rica.

For the forecast, gale force winds will continue to pulse off the
coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Fresh to strong
trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the central Caribbean
through Thu night, then diminish Fri as high pressure weakens
north of the area. Long period N to NE swell will move into
Atlantic passages of the eastern Caribbean tonight through Thu,
then subside Fri and Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W...A weak stationary front is analyzed from 32N59W to
about 27N72W. Another weak stationary front reaches from off the
Georgia coast southwestward into northeast Florida. A very weak
1017 mb low pressure area is evident with the help of recent
scatterometer data near 30N80W off the coast of northeast Florida.
The scatterometer also indicated fresh southerly winds north of
the northern Bahamas between this low and 1022 mb high pressure
centered near 30N72W. Fresh easterly winds are noted farther
south, mainly south of 22N. Altimeter and buoy observations show
seas of 6 to 9 ft in open waters, with a component of northerly
swell.

For the forecast, the weak stationary front will lift north of
the area tonight. A ridge will extend across the northern waters
through mid week, ahead of the next cold front that will move off
the southeast U.S. coast on Wed. This front will briefly stall
over the northern waters Wed night and Thu, then push southward
across the region Thu night through Fri night. Gale conditions are
possible west of the front across the northern waters Thu night
and Fri, with large northerly swell expected to impact much of
the area by Fri night.

Elsewhere over Atlantic north waters south of 32N, strong 1040 mb
high pressure centered near the Azores is supporting a broad area
of fresh trades mainly south of 22N and west of 30W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are evident off the northwest coast of Africa.
Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the areas of stronger winds, and 5 to 7 ft
elsewhere. An upper level low centered off the coast of Western
Sahara is supporting multilevel cloudiness along the coast as
well.

$$
Christensen
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