[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. The strongest winds are expected from 10N to 13N
between 74W-78W. Sea heights will range from 8 to 13 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern Liberia near 04N08W to
01N20W. The ITCZ extends from 01N20W to the coast of Brazil near
03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-03N between
15W-18W, and from 07S-02N between 24W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 16/0300 UTC, a stationary front weakens west of the Straits of
Florida from 24N83W to 25N88W. Showers are seen near this boundary.
A trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to 23N95W.
Another trough is analyzed from 24N95W to 29N84W. Showers are also
noted moving across the northwest Gulf in SW Louisiana with
cloudiness prevailing across most of the western Gulf. The latest
scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate east-
southeast winds with seas ranging 4 to 7 ft across the basin.

A stationary front over the SE Gulf will dissipate tonight. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through
early next week. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf
Tue night, then move across the Gulf Wed and Thu. Gale force
winds are possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper-level low continues to linger over the NE Caribbean
near 16N65W. Showers are seen moving across the eastern Leeward
Antilles, the Lesser Antilles the eastern half of the Greater
Antilles. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in
water vapor imagery over the remainder of the Caribbean to the
west of 71W. This is due to strong mid-level ridging over the
western Caribbean. Surface observations show gentle to moderate
trades across the basin with seas ranging from 6 to 9 ft in the
central and eastern Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean into Thu, pulsing to
gale force each night off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The cold front stretches from 30N60W to 25N73W, then stalls from
25N73W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Showers are seen
along the boundary. ASCAT shows fresh to strong Northeast winds
behind the front from 26N-31N between 61W-80W. Ahead of the front,
a trough is analyzed from 22N69W to 26N62W. Seas are up to 12 ft
near the boundary. Another trough in the central Atlantic is
analyzed near 26N45W to 30N36W. High pressure dominates the
central and eastern Atlantic with a 1026 mb high near 29N46W. As
an upper level trough digs across NW Africa, a surface trough is
north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 26N27W to 16N25W. Scattered
showers are moving across these islands to NW Africa from Guinea-
Bissau to Western Sahara. Farther south, cloudiness with scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen associated to a
trough near the ITCZ from 00N29W to 01N40W. Showers associated
with a large upper-level low is seen east of the Lesser Antilles
from 10N-20N between 51W- 61W. Fresh to locally strong trades
cover the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N between 36W-62W.

The cold front will slowly dissipate through Sun night. High
pressure will build across the region Mon and Tue. Looking ahead,
the next cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast the middle of
next week.

$$
MMT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net