[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. The strongest winds are expected from 10N to 13N
between 74W-78W. Sea heights will range from 8 to 13 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern Liberia near 05N09W to
02N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N17W to 01S27W to the coast of
Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-03N
between 10W-17W, and from 06S-01N between 22W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 15/2100 UTC, a stationary front drapes across the Straits of
Florida and the southeast Gulf from 24N80W to 23N83W to 25N88W.
Showers are seen near this boundary. A 1016 mb low is located in
the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W with a trough stretching along the
low from 23N97W to 18N93W. Another trough is analyzed from 25N92W
to 22N94W. Showers are also noted moving across the northwest
Gulf in SW Louisiana with cloudiness prevailing across most of the
western Gulf. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depict moderate east-southeast winds with seas
ranging 4 to 7 ft across the basin.

A stationary front over the SE Gulf will dissipate tonight. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through
early next week. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf
Tue night, then move across the Gulf Wed and Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper-level low continues to linger over the NE Caribbean
near 16N65W. Showers are seen moving across the eastern Leeward
Antilles, the Lesser Antilles the eastern half of the Greater
Antilles. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in
water vapor imagery over the remainder of the Caribbean to the
west of 71W. This is due to strong mid-level ridging over the
western Caribbean. Surface observations show gentle to moderate
trades across the basin with seas ranging from 6 to 9 ft in the
central and eastern Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean into Thu, pulsing to gale
force each night off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The cold front stretches from 31N64W to 28N73W to the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W. Showers are seen along the boundary. A trough
is analyzed from 26N67W to 22N70W. Seas are up to 12 ft near the
boundary. Another trough in the central Atlantic is analyzed near
31N37W to 27N47W. High pressure dominates the central and eastern
Atlantic with a 1024 mb high near 28N49W. As an upper level
trough digs across NW Africa, a surface trough is north of the
Cabo Verde Islands from 25N26W to 18N21W. Scattered showers are
moving across these islands to NW Africa from Guinea-Bissau to
Western Sahara. Farther south, cloudiness with scattered showers
associated with a large upper- level low is seen east of the
Lesser Antilles from 10N-20N between 51W-61W. Fresh to locally
strong trades cover the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N between
36W-62W.

The cold front will slowly dissipate through Sun night. High
pressure will build across the region Mon and Tue. Looking ahead,
the next cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast the middle of
next week.

$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net