[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
530 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure north of the area will remain in place and maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast
period, except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the
Colombian coast. A recent altimeter passes showed a large area of
seas between 8 and 11 ft covering the eastern and central
Caribbean.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western terminus of the monsoon trough reaches Liberia on the
coast of Africa near 05N09W. The ITCZ extends from 03S05W to
02S16W to 03S27W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S49W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
an area bounded by 04S13W to 07S26W to 01S47W to 05N40W to 03S25W
to 04S13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from the Florida Big Bend
near 29N82.5W to 22N92W to 17.5N93W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are taking place N of 27N and to the NW of
the front between 120 and 240 nm. Cloudiness and patchy light
rain are occurring along and up to 180 nm NW of this boundary S of
27N. Except for near gale force winds over the waters near
Veracruz, observations from oil platforms and buoys indicate fresh
to strong N to NE winds W of the front, while light to moderate
SE winds are seen E of the front. The front is slowing down and
will eventually stall from the Florida Straits to the Bay of
Campeche by Sat morning. On Sat and Sun the front will weaken,
then dissipate on Mon. Near gale force NW winds W of the front
near Veracruz will become fresh by Sat night as the front weakens.
High pressure ridging following in the wake of the front will
shift E and weaken through early next week. A weak low pressure
center may move from W to E across the far northern Gulf this
weekend and enhance winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia.

Overnight scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong trade winds
across the basin. The most recent altimeter passes indicated seas
running 8 to 11 ft for the eastern two-thirds of the basin.
Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain these
conditions for at least the next several days. A mid to upper-
level low centered near 14N64W is generating cloudiness and some
isolated showers over the far SE Caribbean. Ridging and large
scale subsidence prevail over the central and western Caribbean.

Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast
period, pulsing to gale force each night off the coast of Colombia
through Tue. A cold front moving E from the United States
mainland will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc to allow the
fresh to strong trades over the Windward Passage and over in the
Gulf of Honduras to subside by tonight. Fresh trades over the
tropical Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front currently extends from 32N76W to St Augustine
Florida. The front will continue heading E over the the northern
waters through Sat, then stall from near 32N60W to near the
southern tip of Florida by Sat night. The stalled front is
expected to weaken and dissipate by Mon. High pressure will build
E over the waters in the wake of the front and remain in place
through at least the middle of next week. Strong to near gale
force NE winds will develop behind the cold front Fri night and
Sat in response to a tight pressure gradient N of the front.

Almost the entire basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge,
anchored by high pressure systems centered near 28N56W and near
28N37W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds
along the southern flank of the ridge over the tropical northern
Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds are blowing across the
regional waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. These winds are
expected to abate for the next few days as the ridge over the
western Atlc is temporarily weakened by the cold front pushing E
from the SE United states.

$$
CAM
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