[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1216 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong
trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast period,
except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian
coast. A recent altimeter pass showed seas to 14 ft over the south
central Caribbean W of 77W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast
product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the basin from the Florida Big Bend
near 29N83W to 22N93W to 18N93.5W. The front is slowing down and
will eventually stall from the Florida Straits to the Bay of
Campeche by Sat morning. On Sat and Sun the front will weaken,
then dissipate on Mon. Gale force NW winds W of the front near
Veracruz will abate by dawn on Fri as the front begins to weaken
and the high pres ridge over the western Gulf begins to shift E.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Liberia on the coast of Africa
near 06N10W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03S25W to
00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 06S to 02S between 16W
and 30W and from 04S to 04N between 30W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning, currently in effect for the southwest Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of
Campeche. Except for the waters near Veracruz, observations from
oil platforms and buoys indicate fresh to strong northerly winds
W of the front, while light to moderate SE to S winds prevail
E of the front. The front will shift SE across the Gulf, then
stall from near the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche by Sat
morning, then weaken Sat and Sun. High pressure ridging following in
the wake of the front will shift E and weaken through early next
week. A weak low pressure center may move from W to E across the
far northern Gulf this weekend and enhance winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect near the coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade winds
continue across the basin. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas
to near 11 ft in the central part of the basin. Strong high
pressure north of the area will maintain these conditions during
the next several days. A mid to upper-level low centered near
14N64W is generating cloudiness and some isolated showers over
the far SE Caribbean. Ridging and large scale subsidence prevail
over the central and western Caribbean.

Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the forecast
period, pulsing to gale force each night off the coast of Colombia
through Tue. A cold front moving E from the United States
mainland will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc to allow the
fresh to strong trades over the Windward Passage and over in the
Gulf of Honduras to subside by tonight. Fresh trades over the
tropical Atlantic waters will diminish to mainly moderate speeds
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The entire basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored
by twin 1026 mb high pressure systems centered near 28N56W and
near 29N39W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade
winds along the southern periphery of the ridge over the tropical
northern Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds are blowing
across the regional waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to
strong S winds are also observed E of the Florida Peninsula between
the Atlantic ridge and a cold front pushing E from the SE CONUS.

The aforementioned cold front will continue heading E over the
remainder of the northern waters through Sat before dissipating
over the central waters Sat night into Sun. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front.

$$
CAM
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