[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The surface pressure gradient will maintain gale force winds along
the coast of N Colombia continuing through mid morning and then
subsiding this afternoon. These conditions will develop again
tonight through Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details..

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 02N,
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01S43W. Scattered
moderate strong convection is seen from 02S-07N between 07W-20W.
Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection is present from 01S-
03N between 20W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf waters extending from
29N93W to 27N97W, then it continues inland across S Texas into a
1010 mb low pressure. Scattered light to moderate showers are
developing along the Texas coast. Overcast layer of low ceilings
is reported in most of the observations west of 87W. Scatterometer
shows light to moderate southeast winds are present across the
basin with the exception of fresh winds in the Bay of Campeche
south of 21N.

Surface ridging and moderate to fresh return flow will dominate
the gulf through Wed evening. A cold front will become stationary
along the Texas coast this afternoon and through Wed, before
moving into the NW Gulf Wed evening. The cold front is expected to
move across the Gulf Wed night through Fri evening, and will
likely bring gale conditions off Veracruz on Thu and Thu night.
The front will stall and gradually weaken over the south- central
and SE Gulf Fri and Fri night, with ridging becoming re-established
into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning,
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across most of the basin, except south of 17N between
62W-80W, and fresh to strong winds prevail from 16N south between
71W-78W. Scattered low-topped showers are quickly moving across
the basin with these winds, mainly east of 80W.

Strong high pressure ridging north of the area will maintain
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the period,
except for gale force winds pulsing each night off the Colombian
coast. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf
of Honduras and in the the approaches to the Windward Passage
through Thu morning. Strong high pressure is forecast to emerge
off the northeastern U.S. on Sat evening allowing for fresh to
strong winds over most of the central and southern waters,
including the Windward Passage, through the remainder of the
weekend. Fresh trades over the tropical Atlantic waters will
diminish late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by a
1033 mb high centered near 34N35W. This ridge is supporting fresh
to strong trade winds across most of the tropical northern Atlantic,
south of 24N and E of 60W.

An upper level trough is digging in West Africa, from Morocco and
Algeria, to Sierra Leone. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery on the western side of the
trough, within 480 nm of the coast of Africa, from 06N to 30N.

Strong high pressure will dominate the forecast waters through
Wed night. A cold front is expected to move off the southeastern
coast Thu evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds preceding the
front are expected to affect the northwestern waters Wed night
through Thu. The front will move southeastward across the area
through Sat before dissipating over the central waters Sat night
into Sun.

$$
Torres
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