[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111111
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
611 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The current forecast, valid at 11/0600 UTC, consists of: NE-to-E
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 16 feet,
from 10N to 13N between 73W and 77W, along the coast of Colombia.
The gale-force winds will last until the middle of the day today.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N,
to 06N13W, 02N21W, and 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W,
crossing the Equator along 34W, to 01S38W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N southward
between 04W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in Texas, from east Texas to the coastal plains,
to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is in the Rio Grande Valley
near 27N99W. The front continues into Mexico near 27N101W and
29N102W. A stationary front continues from 29N102W, northwestward
to the Far West of Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the
NW of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the Deep South of
Texas along the coast.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind
flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge, and moderate to fresh return flow, will dominate
the Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday evening. A cold front will
stall along the TX coast later today and on Wednesday, before
moving into the NW Gulf on Wednesday evening. The cold front is
expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico, from Wednesday night
through Friday evening. It is likely that the cold front will
bring gale-force wind conditions off Veracruz Mexico on Thursday
and Thursday night. The front will stall and weaken gradually, in
the S central and SE Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Friday night.
A ridge will become re-established into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in broken low level
clouds, in trade wind flow, across the entire area.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery
covers the Caribbean Sea from 20N southward.

A strong ridge to the N of the area will maintain strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea through the period.
Gale-force winds will be pulsing each night off the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf
of Honduras and in the approach to the Windward Passage through
Thursday morning. Strong high pressure will come off the NE U.S.A.
on Saturday evening. The strong high pressure will support fresh
to strong winds along the Windward Passage and Cuba adjacent
waters through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh trade winds,
dominating the tropical Atlantic Ocean, will diminish late on
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N69W, to 30N74,
to 28N76W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N northward
between 50W and 76W.

An upper level trough extends from a 26N43W cyclonic circulation
center, to the coast of Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 23N to 27N between 39W and 45W, and from 10N southward
between 50W and 60W.

An upper level trough is digging in West Africa, from Morocco and
Algeria, to Sierra Leone. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery on the western side of the
trough, within 480 nm of the coast of Africa, from 06N to 30N.

The current dissipating stationary front will vanish this morning.
Strong high pressure will dominate the forecast waters through
Wednesday night. A cold front is expected to move off the SE
U.S.A. coast on Thursday evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds
associated with the front are expected to affect the NW waters
from Wednesday night through Thursday. The front will move SE
across the area through Saturday, before dissipating to the NE of
Puerto Rico on Saturday night.

$$
MT
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