[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Bermuda high pressure will strengthen across the region supporting
a tighter pressure gradient along the coast of Colombia. This will
produce winds pulsing to gale force winds during the night around
09/0300 UTC through 09/1200 UTC. Seas will range between 10 to 12
ft. Please read latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 02S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Isolated showers are possible near the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front has exit the basin and moved into the NW Caribbean
with a 1019 mb high pressure building behind across the Gulf.
ASCAT data indicates a broad area of anticyclonic winds across
the basin with fresh to strong NW to N winds behind the front
across the eastern Gulf east of 90W and light to moderate east
to southeast winds west of 90W. Light to moderate rain is present
south of 25N across the southern portion of the basin.

A cold front has moved SE of the Gulf this afternoon. In the wake
of the front, strong N winds and high seas will diminish tonight.
A weak cold front will stall and dissipate just off the Texas
coast Sat, otherwise high pressure will dominate into the middle
of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the western Atlantic across W Cuba into
the NW Caribbean Sea from 22N81W to 17N87W. A weak 1013 mb low
pressure is to the east of the front north of Honduras centered
near 16N85W. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and
Puerto Rico, N of 15N and E of 67W. ASCAT indicates moderate to
fresh easterly trades across the eastern and central Caribbean
while fresh to strong winds are present north of Colombia south
of 15N between 70W-76W. light to moderate southeast winds prevail
ahead of the front in the SW Caribbean west of 80W.

The cold front will stall tonight then dissipate over the weekend.
As the Bermuda High rebuilds north of the area in the wake of the
front, this will support winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia,
mainly at night, starting late Sat through at least Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N72W to the Straits
of Florida 23N80W. Gale force winds are on both sides of the
front, N of 28N. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm
of the front. A broad 1031 mb high pressure is over the Atlantic
near 31N34W centered midway between Bermuda and the Azores with a
ridge axis that extends to S of Bermuda. .

The 1031 mb high pressure remains in control across the basin. The
cold front will move east of Bermuda and into the central Bahamas
Sat, before stalling Sun and dissipating early next week. Strong
W winds in the wake of this front will turn NW and diminish tonight
N of the Bahamas.

$$ MMT
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