[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
537 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is pushing across the southeast Gulf of Mexico, from
SW Florida to the northern Yucatan. Gales have developed ahead of
this front, with scatterometer showing southeasterly gale force
winds from 28N- 29N between 83W- 85W. Seas will range from 12 to
16 ft. Westerly gale force winds are noted behind the front from
28N- 30N between 87W- 88W. These gales will end by 07/1200 UTC.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is currently moving across the western Atlantic.
Southerly gale force winds have developed ahead of the front from
28N-31N between 77W- 80W. As the front pushes farther in the
basin, gale force force winds will continue on both sides of the
front from 28N-31N between 72W-80W. Seas will range from 10 to 16
ft. This is expected to last through until 08/0000 UTC.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details on the three special features listed below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N15W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 02S28W to
the coast of Brazil near 05S38W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted from 03S-06N between 15W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 07/0900 UTC, the cold front enters the eastern Gulf off the
SW Florida coast near 26N82W to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W.
Scattered moderate convection is along the front from 24N-26N
between 81W-84W. High pressure is building across the western
Gulf, anchored by a 1014 mb high near 26N96W.

The latest scatterometer data depicts southeasterly gale force
winds from 28N-31N between 77W-80W. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are seen across the SE Gulf ahead of the front. Westerly
gale force winds are noted from 28N- 30N between 87W-88W.
Elsewhere, strong to near gale-force winds are noted across the NW
Gulf eastward to the cold front. Moderate winds are seen near the
high. Seas are currently ranging between 12 to 15 ft near the
westerly gale force winds. Elsewhere, seas range 6 to 8 ft across
the central and western Gulf.

The cold front will move southeast of the Gulf by this afternoon.
W gales are occurring behind the front in the N Gulf, diminishing
by this afternoon. By Fri night, conditions across the Gulf will
quickly improve with relatively tranquil winds and seas through
Tue. The next cold front may reach the NW Gulf late on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure continues to dominate the Caribbean and inhibit
deep convection. However, showers are moving across the Greater
and Lesser Antilles. A 1008 mb low is analyzed in the Gulf of
Honduras near 17N87W with a trough extending along the low from
16N87W to 21N86W. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations show strong trades north of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are off
the eastern coast of Honduras, with strong southerly winds between
Honduras and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in
the eastern Caribbean with gentle winds in the SW basin and the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas are ranging from 3 to 6 ft, with seas up to
9 ft north of Colombia.

A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean later today, become
stationary from central Cuba to Yucatan by Sat afternoon, and
dissipate on Sun. As the Bermuda High rebuilds north of the area
in the wake of the front, this will support winds to gale force
off Colombia, mainly at night, starting late Sat through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 07/0900 UTC, a cold front enters the western Atlantic from
30N78W to the coast of Florida near 28N80W. A line of
thunderstorms is along the cold front N of 29N, otherwise
scattered moderate convection is seen from 26N-31N between 76W-
80W. A mb broad ridge is anchored by a 1028 mb near 29N51W and a
1027 mb near 30N38W and remains in control across most of the
Atlantic.

The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale force
winds N of 27N and W of 73W. Seas are ranging from 12 to 15 ft in
the western Atlantic. Under the high, seas are 4 to 6 ft.

The Bermuda-Azores High has a ridge axis that extends just south
of the Bahamas. A strong pressure gradient from the high to an
extratropical low over the SE United States will be producing S to
SW gales in the N waters this morning. As a cold front emerges
off of the Florida coast, W gales will occur behind the front in
the afternoon. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to
central Cuba by Sat afternoon, become stationary in the same
vicinity by Sun afternoon, and dissipate on Mon.

$$
AKR
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